Ongoing summer heat across the Korean Peninsula, with the Korea Meteorological Administration maintaining heatwave advisories for the Seoul-Incheon region, underpins the tightly bunched market probabilities centered on 33–35°C for August 5. Ensemble guidance from global models and KMA short-range forecasts show daytime maxima likely reaching the mid-30s Celsius, tempered by high humidity, light winds, and a modest chance of afternoon convection that could cap temperatures near 34°C or allow brief spikes toward 35°C. Historical early-August climatology for Incheon averages near 31–32°C, but recent days have consistently exceeded this baseline, contributing to trader emphasis on the upper end of the distribution. Model spread in cloud cover and precipitation timing remains the key uncertainty, with updated KMA briefings and 48-hour forecast revisions expected to refine the peak reading before market resolution.