Current ensemble forecast models from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global systems such as ECMWF point to a daily maximum of 28–29°C on August 5, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities. Istanbul’s August climatology features average highs near 28°C, with recent observations showing stable conditions and no strong signals of intensification from regional heat patterns or Mediterranean sea-surface temperatures. Short-range guidance indicates limited diurnal warming potential under typical summer humidity and wind regimes, though model spread could allow a 30°C outcome if subsidence strengthens. Traders appear to weight these consensus runs heavily given the two-day horizon and historical resolution criteria based on official station data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Istambul no dia 5 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em Istambul no dia 5 de agosto?
29°C 67%
28°C 36%
30°C 22%
27°C 18%
NOVO
NOVO
5 ago 2026
24°C ou menos
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
12%
27°C
18%
28°C
36%
29°C
42%
30°C
22%
31°C
3%
32°C
4%
33°C
2%
34°C ou mais
2%
29°C 67%
28°C 36%
30°C 22%
27°C 18%
NOVO
NOVO
5 ago 2026
24°C ou menos
$0 Vol.
1%
25°C
$10 Vol.
1%
26°C
$95 Vol.
12%
27°C
$0 Vol.
18%
28°C
$0 Vol.
36%
29°C
$12 Vol.
42%
30°C
$0 Vol.
22%
31°C
$22 Vol.
3%
32°C
$10 Vol.
4%
33°C
$10 Vol.
2%
34°C ou mais
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecast models from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global systems such as ECMWF point to a daily maximum of 28–29°C on August 5, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities. Istanbul’s August climatology features average highs near 28°C, with recent observations showing stable conditions and no strong signals of intensification from regional heat patterns or Mediterranean sea-surface temperatures. Short-range guidance indicates limited diurnal warming potential under typical summer humidity and wind regimes, though model spread could allow a 30°C outcome if subsidence strengthens. Traders appear to weight these consensus runs heavily given the two-day horizon and historical resolution criteria based on official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$169Data de Término
5 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecast models from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global systems such as ECMWF point to a daily maximum of 28–29°C on August 5, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities. Istanbul’s August climatology features average highs near 28°C, with recent observations showing stable conditions and no strong signals of intensification from regional heat patterns or Mediterranean sea-surface temperatures. Short-range guidance indicates limited diurnal warming potential under typical summer humidity and wind regimes, though model spread could allow a 30°C outcome if subsidence strengthens. Traders appear to weight these consensus runs heavily given the two-day horizon and historical resolution criteria based on official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$169Data de Término
5 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecast models from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global systems such as ECMWF point to a daily maximum of 28–29°C on August 5, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities. Istanbul’s August climatology features average highs near 28°C, with recent observations showing stable conditions and no strong signals of intensification from regional heat patterns or Mediterranean sea-surface temperatures. Short-range guidance indicates limited diurnal warming potential under typical summer humidity and wind regimes, though model spread could allow a 30°C outcome if subsidence strengthens. Traders appear to weight these consensus runs heavily given the two-day horizon and historical resolution criteria based on official station data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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