Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 46% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 20°C on April 18, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecast of overcast conditions with highs near 22-23°C, tempered by persistent cloud cover suppressing peak solar heating as seen in recent days' actuals. Ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS converge around 20-21°C at the resolving Shanghai Pudong International Airport station, where urban heat island effects add modest upside risk if afternoon clearing occurs. April climatology supports this range, with historical mid-month highs averaging 19°C amid variable spring weather patterns; final observations from official stations will resolve the market tomorrow.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 18?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 18?
20°C 45%
21°C 17%
19°C 16%
18°C 5.8%
$37,474 Vol.
$37,474 Vol.
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
6%
19°C
16%
20°C
45%
21°C
17%
22°C
5%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 45%
21°C 17%
19°C 16%
18°C 5.8%
$37,474 Vol.
$37,474 Vol.
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
6%
19°C
16%
20°C
45%
21°C
17%
22°C
5%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 46% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 20°C on April 18, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecast of overcast conditions with highs near 22-23°C, tempered by persistent cloud cover suppressing peak solar heating as seen in recent days' actuals. Ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS converge around 20-21°C at the resolving Shanghai Pudong International Airport station, where urban heat island effects add modest upside risk if afternoon clearing occurs. April climatology supports this range, with historical mid-month highs averaging 19°C amid variable spring weather patterns; final observations from official stations will resolve the market tomorrow.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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