Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on May 10, driven by official hourly observations from the station and METAR reports confirming a midday peak of 24°C under persistent overcast skies that suppressed solar heating. China Meteorological Administration data and recent bulletins align with this, showing temperatures falling to 19°C by evening, well below initial forecasts of 25–26°C amid typical May cloudiness and light winds. This reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with verified measurements over model projections. Realistic challenges would require a rare official revision upward from Pudong records or undocumented late-afternoon spike before midnight resolution, both improbable given current cooling trends and climatological norms for early May highs averaging 24–25°C.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Xangai no dia 10 de maio?
Temperatura mais alta em Xangai no dia 10 de maio?
24°C 100.0%
18°C ou menos <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$213,890 Vol.
$213,890 Vol.
10 mai 2026
18°C ou menos
Não
19°C
Não
20°C
Não
21°C
Não
22°C
Não
23°C
Não
24°C
Sim
25°C
Não
26°C
Não
27°C
Não
28°C ou mais
Não
24°C 100.0%
18°C ou menos <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$213,890 Vol.
$213,890 Vol.
10 mai 2026
18°C ou menos
$7,194 Vol.
Não
19°C
$3,390 Vol.
Não
20°C
$4,979 Vol.
Não
21°C
$12,239 Vol.
Não
22°C
$13,102 Vol.
Não
23°C
$21,955 Vol.
Não
24°C
$26,515 Vol.
Sim
25°C
$53,673 Vol.
Não
26°C
$39,298 Vol.
Não
27°C
$13,528 Vol.
Não
28°C ou mais
$18,016 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on May 10, driven by official hourly observations from the station and METAR reports confirming a midday peak of 24°C under persistent overcast skies that suppressed solar heating. China Meteorological Administration data and recent bulletins align with this, showing temperatures falling to 19°C by evening, well below initial forecasts of 25–26°C amid typical May cloudiness and light winds. This reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with verified measurements over model projections. Realistic challenges would require a rare official revision upward from Pudong records or undocumented late-afternoon spike before midnight resolution, both improbable given current cooling trends and climatological norms for early May highs averaging 24–25°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$213,890Data de Término
10 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on May 10, driven by official hourly observations from the station and METAR reports confirming a midday peak of 24°C under persistent overcast skies that suppressed solar heating. China Meteorological Administration data and recent bulletins align with this, showing temperatures falling to 19°C by evening, well below initial forecasts of 25–26°C amid typical May cloudiness and light winds. This reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with verified measurements over model projections. Realistic challenges would require a rare official revision upward from Pudong records or undocumented late-afternoon spike before midnight resolution, both improbable given current cooling trends and climatological norms for early May highs averaging 24–25°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$213,890Data de Término
10 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on May 10, driven by official hourly observations from the station and METAR reports confirming a midday peak of 24°C under persistent overcast skies that suppressed solar heating. China Meteorological Administration data and recent bulletins align with this, showing temperatures falling to 19°C by evening, well below initial forecasts of 25–26°C amid typical May cloudiness and light winds. This reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with verified measurements over model projections. Realistic challenges would require a rare official revision upward from Pudong records or undocumented late-afternoon spike before midnight resolution, both improbable given current cooling trends and climatological norms for early May highs averaging 24–25°C.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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