Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering maximum temperatures around 17-18°C for Warsaw on April 18, with a narrow 2-3°C spread capturing 75% of members amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. Recent 00Z model runs trended slightly warmer after early April's cooler anomalies (e.g., 13.2°C on April 1), driven by reduced cloud cover and southerly flow enhancing daytime heating above the mid-April climatological norm of 14°C. Differentiating factors include afternoon insolation under partly cloudy skies—fuller sun favors 18-19°C, while diurnally formed cumulus or mid-level clouds caps at 16-17°C. IMGW updates at 12Z today and official Chopin Airport observations will refine this ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 18?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 18?
17°C 31%
18°C 31%
19°C 19%
16°C 15%
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
1%
16°C
15%
17°C
31%
18°C
31%
19°C
19%
20°C or higher
8%
17°C 31%
18°C 31%
19°C 19%
16°C 15%
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
1%
16°C
15%
17°C
31%
18°C
31%
19°C
19%
20°C or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering maximum temperatures around 17-18°C for Warsaw on April 18, with a narrow 2-3°C spread capturing 75% of members amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. Recent 00Z model runs trended slightly warmer after early April's cooler anomalies (e.g., 13.2°C on April 1), driven by reduced cloud cover and southerly flow enhancing daytime heating above the mid-April climatological norm of 14°C. Differentiating factors include afternoon insolation under partly cloudy skies—fuller sun favors 18-19°C, while diurnally formed cumulus or mid-level clouds caps at 16-17°C. IMGW updates at 12Z today and official Chopin Airport observations will refine this ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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