Recent forecasts from major models place Warsaw's peak temperature on August 3 in the 28–31 °C range, with ensemble spreads producing the tight clustering around 29 °C (market-implied 30 %) and 30 °C (21.5 %). Surface high pressure centered over central Europe and light easterly flow are limiting daytime mixing while allowing strong insolation under mostly clear skies, pushing maximums near or slightly above the late-summer climatological mean of ~26 °C. Model-to-model differences in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage create the observed 1–2 °C uncertainty band that traders are pricing; later ECMWF and GFS runs this weekend will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.