The new congressional map enacted in Florida's 2026 special session, designed for a 24-4 Republican split and signed in May, drives the core outlook while facing ongoing court challenges under the state constitution's Fair Districts rules. Democrats retain a base in urban and South Florida districts such as FL-10 (Frost), FL-14 (Castor), FL-20, FL-22 (open), FL-23 (Frankel), FL-24, and FL-25 (Moskowitz), with primaries set for August 18. National midterm dynamics, including generic ballot trends favoring the opposition party, and candidate recruitment add variables that could shift totals modestly higher or allow further erosion. The tight clustering around 7-9 seats captures uncertainty over map litigation, district-specific turnout, and any late-cycle developments before the November 3 election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado7 30%
8 16%
6 14%
9 14%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
<4
7%
4
3%
5
8%
6
14%
7
30%
8
16%
9
17%
10
11%
11
14%
12+
14%
7 30%
8 16%
6 14%
9 14%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
<4
$59 Vol.
7%
4
$586 Vol.
3%
5
$256 Vol.
8%
6
$17 Vol.
14%
7
$75 Vol.
30%
8
$57 Vol.
16%
9
$37 Vol.
17%
10
$121 Vol.
11%
11
$17 Vol.
14%
12+
$17 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.The new congressional map enacted in Florida's 2026 special session, designed for a 24-4 Republican split and signed in May, drives the core outlook while facing ongoing court challenges under the state constitution's Fair Districts rules. Democrats retain a base in urban and South Florida districts such as FL-10 (Frost), FL-14 (Castor), FL-20, FL-22 (open), FL-23 (Frankel), FL-24, and FL-25 (Moskowitz), with primaries set for August 18. National midterm dynamics, including generic ballot trends favoring the opposition party, and candidate recruitment add variables that could shift totals modestly higher or allow further erosion. The tight clustering around 7-9 seats captures uncertainty over map litigation, district-specific turnout, and any late-cycle developments before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
Volume
$1,242Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.The new congressional map enacted in Florida's 2026 special session, designed for a 24-4 Republican split and signed in May, drives the core outlook while facing ongoing court challenges under the state constitution's Fair Districts rules. Democrats retain a base in urban and South Florida districts such as FL-10 (Frost), FL-14 (Castor), FL-20, FL-22 (open), FL-23 (Frankel), FL-24, and FL-25 (Moskowitz), with primaries set for August 18. National midterm dynamics, including generic ballot trends favoring the opposition party, and candidate recruitment add variables that could shift totals modestly higher or allow further erosion. The tight clustering around 7-9 seats captures uncertainty over map litigation, district-specific turnout, and any late-cycle developments before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,242Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The new congressional map enacted in Florida's 2026 special session, designed for a 24-4 Republican split and signed in May, drives the core outlook while facing ongoing court challenges under the state constitution's Fair Districts rules. Democrats retain a base in urban and South Florida districts such as FL-10 (Frost), FL-14 (Castor), FL-20, FL-22 (open), FL-23 (Frankel), FL-24, and FL-25 (Moskowitz), with primaries set for August 18. National midterm dynamics, including generic ballot trends favoring the opposition party, and candidate recruitment add variables that could shift totals modestly higher or allow further erosion. The tight clustering around 7-9 seats captures uncertainty over map litigation, district-specific turnout, and any late-cycle developments before the November 3 election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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