Federal law fixes the 2026 midterm election date for November 3, with all 435 House seats and one-third of Senate seats on the ballot, leaving little room for unilateral alteration by any single branch. Traders assign 97.4% probability to the elections proceeding because constitutional requirements, statutory deadlines, and state-administered processes create multiple institutional barriers to postponement or cancellation. Recent developments, including ongoing litigation over mail ballots and congressional map changes, focus on access and administration rather than halting the vote itself. Historical precedent shows elections continuing through wars, recessions, and public health crises. Realistic disruptions would require coordinated congressional action or an extraordinary emergency triggering multi-branch consensus, both viewed by markets as low-probability events in the remaining weeks.