Trader consensus on 2026 House turnout remains tightly distributed because midterm participation historically falls well below presidential-year levels amid lower overall voter enthusiasm and fewer competitive races. Early generic ballot polling shows a Democratic edge that could widen enthusiasm gaps, as seen in recent special elections where opposition turnout held stronger. Economic conditions, candidate recruitment, and national political climate closer to November will determine mobilization of lower-propensity voters, while redistricting and safe-seat dynamics limit upside potential. These variables keep probabilities for 120-125 million and 130 million-plus outcomes nearly even, with separation likely only after clearer signals emerge on base engagement.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado120-125 milhões 28%
<85 milhões 23.2%
115-120 milhões 22%
125-130 milhões 15%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
<85 milhões
23%
85-90 milhões
<1%
90-95 milhões
1%
95-100 milhões
1%
100-105 milhões
4%
105-110 milhões
5%
110-115 milhões
11%
115-120 milhões
22%
120-125 milhões
28%
125-130 milhões
20%
130 milhões+
29%
120-125 milhões 28%
<85 milhões 23.2%
115-120 milhões 22%
125-130 milhões 15%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
<85 milhões
$371 Vol.
23%
85-90 milhões
$419 Vol.
<1%
90-95 milhões
$1,552 Vol.
1%
95-100 milhões
$269 Vol.
1%
100-105 milhões
$809 Vol.
4%
105-110 milhões
$436 Vol.
5%
110-115 milhões
$540 Vol.
11%
115-120 milhões
$1,025 Vol.
22%
120-125 milhões
$408 Vol.
28%
125-130 milhões
$1,204 Vol.
20%
130 milhões+
$318 Vol.
29%
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Trader consensus on 2026 House turnout remains tightly distributed because midterm participation historically falls well below presidential-year levels amid lower overall voter enthusiasm and fewer competitive races. Early generic ballot polling shows a Democratic edge that could widen enthusiasm gaps, as seen in recent special elections where opposition turnout held stronger. Economic conditions, candidate recruitment, and national political climate closer to November will determine mobilization of lower-propensity voters, while redistricting and safe-seat dynamics limit upside potential. These variables keep probabilities for 120-125 million and 130 million-plus outcomes nearly even, with separation likely only after clearer signals emerge on base engagement.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ET
Volume
$7,350Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Trader consensus on 2026 House turnout remains tightly distributed because midterm participation historically falls well below presidential-year levels amid lower overall voter enthusiasm and fewer competitive races. Early generic ballot polling shows a Democratic edge that could widen enthusiasm gaps, as seen in recent special elections where opposition turnout held stronger. Economic conditions, candidate recruitment, and national political climate closer to November will determine mobilization of lower-propensity voters, while redistricting and safe-seat dynamics limit upside potential. These variables keep probabilities for 120-125 million and 130 million-plus outcomes nearly even, with separation likely only after clearer signals emerge on base engagement.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$7,350Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on 2026 House turnout remains tightly distributed because midterm participation historically falls well below presidential-year levels amid lower overall voter enthusiasm and fewer competitive races. Early generic ballot polling shows a Democratic edge that could widen enthusiasm gaps, as seen in recent special elections where opposition turnout held stronger. Economic conditions, candidate recruitment, and national political climate closer to November will determine mobilization of lower-propensity voters, while redistricting and safe-seat dynamics limit upside potential. These variables keep probabilities for 120-125 million and 130 million-plus outcomes nearly even, with separation likely only after clearer signals emerge on base engagement.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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