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icon for Vagas republicanas na Câmara após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?

Vagas republicanas na Câmara após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?

icon for Vagas republicanas na Câmara após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?

Vagas republicanas na Câmara após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?

Abaixo de 190 22%

195-199 15%

210-214 14.8%

190-194 14%

Polymarket

$280,383 Vol.

Abaixo de 190 22%

195-199 15%

210-214 14.8%

190-194 14%

Polymarket

$280,383 Vol.

Abaixo de 190

$30,284 Vol.

22%

190-194

$13,345 Vol.

14%

195-199

$32,393 Vol.

15%

200-204

$24,419 Vol.

13%

205-209

$39,343 Vol.

13%

210-214

$15,105 Vol.

15%

215-219

$11,341 Vol.

7%

220-224

$58,847 Vol.

5%

225-229

$24,618 Vol.

7%

230+

$30,688 Vol.

2%

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Republican prospects for retaining or expanding their narrow House majority in the 2026 midterms hinge on national political conditions, with the president's job approval in the mid-40s creating headwinds typical of midterm cycles for the incumbent party. Recent special-election results show Democrats overperforming 2024 baselines by roughly 10 points on average, while a higher number of Republican retirements (36 versus 23 Democratic) expands the map of competitive open seats. Current narrow margins—Republicans holding roughly 218 seats—mean even modest national swings could produce outcomes clustered around 210-219 seats, sustaining tight trader pricing across multiple bins. Key variables include voter turnout patterns in battleground districts, candidate recruitment quality, and any shifts in economic or approval metrics before November. Late developments such as sustained special-election momentum or polling stabilization could separate probabilities by clarifying whether losses stay minimal or accelerate toward historical averages.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.

This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$280,383
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Republican prospects for retaining or expanding their narrow House majority in the 2026 midterms hinge on national political conditions, with the president's job approval in the mid-40s creating headwinds typical of midterm cycles for the incumbent party. Recent special-election results show Democrats overperforming 2024 baselines by roughly 10 points on average, while a higher number of Republican retirements (36 versus 23 Democratic) expands the map of competitive open seats. Current narrow margins—Republicans holding roughly 218 seats—mean even modest national swings could produce outcomes clustered around 210-219 seats, sustaining tight trader pricing across multiple bins. Key variables include voter turnout patterns in battleground districts, candidate recruitment quality, and any shifts in economic or approval metrics before November. Late developments such as sustained special-election momentum or polling stabilization could separate probabilities by clarifying whether losses stay minimal or accelerate toward historical averages.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.

This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$280,383
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vagas republicanas na Câmara após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Abaixo de 190" at 22%, followed by "195-199" at 15%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 22¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vagas republicanas na Câmara após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?" has generated $280.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vagas republicanas na Câmara após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vagas republicanas na Câmara após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?" is "Abaixo de 190" at 22%, meaning the market assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "195-199" at 15%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vagas republicanas na Câmara após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.