Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority following the 2024 elections, but generic ballot polling shows Democrats leading by several points amid the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Redistricting efforts in Texas and potential counters in California have modestly altered the map without fully offsetting Democratic advantages in swing districts and special election results. Trader sentiment reflects this environment through a dispersed distribution of probabilities across seat ranges in the low-to-mid 200s, with elevated shares on outcomes below 210. Key variables that could shift the final tally include sustained economic trends, candidate recruitment in battlegrounds, and voter turnout patterns closer to November 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVagas republicanas na Câmara após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?
Vagas republicanas na Câmara após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?
Abaixo de 190 22%
210-214 14.3%
190-194 14%
195-199 14%
$280,001 Vol.
$280,001 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Abaixo de 190
22%
190-194
14%
195-199
14%
200-204
13%
205-209
12%
210-214
14%
215-219
7%
220-224
5%
225-229
7%
230+
2%
Abaixo de 190 22%
210-214 14.3%
190-194 14%
195-199 14%
$280,001 Vol.
$280,001 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Abaixo de 190
$30,284 Vol.
22%
190-194
$13,293 Vol.
14%
195-199
$32,063 Vol.
14%
200-204
$24,419 Vol.
13%
205-209
$39,343 Vol.
12%
210-214
$15,105 Vol.
14%
215-219
$11,341 Vol.
7%
220-224
$58,847 Vol.
5%
225-229
$24,618 Vol.
7%
230+
$30,688 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority following the 2024 elections, but generic ballot polling shows Democrats leading by several points amid the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Redistricting efforts in Texas and potential counters in California have modestly altered the map without fully offsetting Democratic advantages in swing districts and special election results. Trader sentiment reflects this environment through a dispersed distribution of probabilities across seat ranges in the low-to-mid 200s, with elevated shares on outcomes below 210. Key variables that could shift the final tally include sustained economic trends, candidate recruitment in battlegrounds, and voter turnout patterns closer to November 2026.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$280,001Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority following the 2024 elections, but generic ballot polling shows Democrats leading by several points amid the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Redistricting efforts in Texas and potential counters in California have modestly altered the map without fully offsetting Democratic advantages in swing districts and special election results. Trader sentiment reflects this environment through a dispersed distribution of probabilities across seat ranges in the low-to-mid 200s, with elevated shares on outcomes below 210. Key variables that could shift the final tally include sustained economic trends, candidate recruitment in battlegrounds, and voter turnout patterns closer to November 2026.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$280,001Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority following the 2024 elections, but generic ballot polling shows Democrats leading by several points amid the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Redistricting efforts in Texas and potential counters in California have modestly altered the map without fully offsetting Democratic advantages in swing districts and special election results. Trader sentiment reflects this environment through a dispersed distribution of probabilities across seat ranges in the low-to-mid 200s, with elevated shares on outcomes below 210. Key variables that could shift the final tally include sustained economic trends, candidate recruitment in battlegrounds, and voter turnout patterns closer to November 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
Os republicanos terão 47–49 cadeiras no Senado e 193–207 cadeiras na Câmara após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?
18%
Sim
O Partido Republicano terá 47 ou menos cadeiras no Senado após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?
24%
Sim
Republicanos conquistam trifeta com supermaioria no Senado nas eleições de meio de mandato?
5%
Sim
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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