Recent polling and expert ratings updates in September 2026 show Democrats holding a consistent national generic ballot advantage and shifting more competitive districts toward toss-up or lean Democratic status, consistent with the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Low approval ratings for the incumbent administration, combined with economic pressures and a narrow starting Republican majority of roughly 218 seats, have prompted forecasters to project net Democratic gains of 15–30 seats in November. Redistricting has delivered modest Republican map advantages in some states, yet these appear insufficient to offset the broader environment across the 20–40 battleground districts. The distribution of Polymarket probabilities, with the strongest concentration on outcomes below 200 Republican seats, reflects trader assessments of these dynamics and the historical base rate of opposition-party gains during first-term midterms.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAbaixo de 190 30%
195-199 18%
190-194 14%
200-204 12.8%
$311,593 Vol.
$311,593 Vol.
4 jan 2027
Abaixo de 190
30%
190-194
14%
195-199
18%
200-204
13%
205-209
12%
210-214
10%
215-219
7%
220-224
5%
225-229
2%
230+
2%
Abaixo de 190 30%
195-199 18%
190-194 14%
200-204 12.8%
$311,593 Vol.
$311,593 Vol.
4 jan 2027
Abaixo de 190
$46,562 Vol.
30%
190-194
$15,881 Vol.
14%
195-199
$34,619 Vol.
18%
200-204
$26,766 Vol.
13%
205-209
$41,761 Vol.
12%
210-214
$16,547 Vol.
10%
215-219
$12,155 Vol.
7%
220-224
$60,118 Vol.
5%
225-229
$25,094 Vol.
2%
230+
$32,090 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent polling and expert ratings updates in September 2026 show Democrats holding a consistent national generic ballot advantage and shifting more competitive districts toward toss-up or lean Democratic status, consistent with the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Low approval ratings for the incumbent administration, combined with economic pressures and a narrow starting Republican majority of roughly 218 seats, have prompted forecasters to project net Democratic gains of 15–30 seats in November. Redistricting has delivered modest Republican map advantages in some states, yet these appear insufficient to offset the broader environment across the 20–40 battleground districts. The distribution of Polymarket probabilities, with the strongest concentration on outcomes below 200 Republican seats, reflects trader assessments of these dynamics and the historical base rate of opposition-party gains during first-term midterms.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$311,593Data de Término
5 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent polling and expert ratings updates in September 2026 show Democrats holding a consistent national generic ballot advantage and shifting more competitive districts toward toss-up or lean Democratic status, consistent with the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Low approval ratings for the incumbent administration, combined with economic pressures and a narrow starting Republican majority of roughly 218 seats, have prompted forecasters to project net Democratic gains of 15–30 seats in November. Redistricting has delivered modest Republican map advantages in some states, yet these appear insufficient to offset the broader environment across the 20–40 battleground districts. The distribution of Polymarket probabilities, with the strongest concentration on outcomes below 200 Republican seats, reflects trader assessments of these dynamics and the historical base rate of opposition-party gains during first-term midterms.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$311,593Data de Término
5 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Recent polling and expert ratings updates in September 2026 show Democrats holding a consistent national generic ballot advantage and shifting more competitive districts toward toss-up or lean Democratic status, consistent with the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Low approval ratings for the incumbent administration, combined with economic pressures and a narrow starting Republican majority of roughly 218 seats, have prompted forecasters to project net Democratic gains of 15–30 seats in November. Redistricting has delivered modest Republican map advantages in some states, yet these appear insufficient to offset the broader environment across the 20–40 battleground districts. The distribution of Polymarket probabilities, with the strongest concentration on outcomes below 200 Republican seats, reflects trader assessments of these dynamics and the historical base rate of opposition-party gains during first-term midterms.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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