Florida's 2026 gubernatorial election features an open seat after term-limited Republican incumbent Ron DeSantis, with primaries set for August 18 and the general election on November 3. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the state's partisan lean—where Republicans have won the last three gubernatorial races by double digits—and the 2024 presidential results showing a 13-point GOP margin. Republican primary frontrunner Byron Donalds holds commanding leads in polling and benefits from early party consolidation, while Democratic contenders such as David Jolly trail in head-to-head surveys by 5–9 points. These factors sustain trader consensus around an implied 78–79% probability for a Republican winner, though the race remains subject to shifts from turnout patterns or late primary outcomes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$21,520 Vol.
$21,520 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
79%
Democrata
22%
$21,520 Vol.
$21,520 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
$8,585 Vol.
79%
Democrata
$12,935 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Florida's 2026 gubernatorial election features an open seat after term-limited Republican incumbent Ron DeSantis, with primaries set for August 18 and the general election on November 3. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the state's partisan lean—where Republicans have won the last three gubernatorial races by double digits—and the 2024 presidential results showing a 13-point GOP margin. Republican primary frontrunner Byron Donalds holds commanding leads in polling and benefits from early party consolidation, while Democratic contenders such as David Jolly trail in head-to-head surveys by 5–9 points. These factors sustain trader consensus around an implied 78–79% probability for a Republican winner, though the race remains subject to shifts from turnout patterns or late primary outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
Volume
$21,520Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Florida's 2026 gubernatorial election features an open seat after term-limited Republican incumbent Ron DeSantis, with primaries set for August 18 and the general election on November 3. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the state's partisan lean—where Republicans have won the last three gubernatorial races by double digits—and the 2024 presidential results showing a 13-point GOP margin. Republican primary frontrunner Byron Donalds holds commanding leads in polling and benefits from early party consolidation, while Democratic contenders such as David Jolly trail in head-to-head surveys by 5–9 points. These factors sustain trader consensus around an implied 78–79% probability for a Republican winner, though the race remains subject to shifts from turnout patterns or late primary outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$21,520Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 2026 gubernatorial election features an open seat after term-limited Republican incumbent Ron DeSantis, with primaries set for August 18 and the general election on November 3. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the state's partisan lean—where Republicans have won the last three gubernatorial races by double digits—and the 2024 presidential results showing a 13-point GOP margin. Republican primary frontrunner Byron Donalds holds commanding leads in polling and benefits from early party consolidation, while Democratic contenders such as David Jolly trail in head-to-head surveys by 5–9 points. These factors sustain trader consensus around an implied 78–79% probability for a Republican winner, though the race remains subject to shifts from turnout patterns or late primary outcomes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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