The market-implied probability above 99% for a 15°C low stems from official Météo-France guidance projecting a minimum temperature of 15°C in Paris on June 4, aligning closely with early June climatology where average overnight lows hover near 14°C. A passing perturbation bringing scattered showers and below-normal maxima elsewhere in France has not triggered the stronger cooling needed for lower readings in the Paris basin, where steering patterns and surface conditions favor this stable range. Model consensus remains tight, with limited scope for revision before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoLowest temperature in Paris on June 4?
15°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$15,223 Vol.
$15,223 Vol.
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$15,223 Vol.
$15,223 Vol.
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 2, 2026, 12:35 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
The market-implied probability above 99% for a 15°C low stems from official Météo-France guidance projecting a minimum temperature of 15°C in Paris on June 4, aligning closely with early June climatology where average overnight lows hover near 14°C. A passing perturbation bringing scattered showers and below-normal maxima elsewhere in France has not triggered the stronger cooling needed for lower readings in the Paris basin, where steering patterns and surface conditions favor this stable range. Model consensus remains tight, with limited scope for revision before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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