Trader consensus on Polymarket favors "Michael" grossing over $55 million in its second domestic weekend at 58.7% implied probability, with 50-55 million close behind at 39.5%, buoyed by a solid $14.4 million second Friday that outperformed some expectations amid competition from "The Devil Wears Prada 2." Despite poor critical reception, the Michael Jackson biopic's record $97 million opening and A CinemaScore from audiences signal strong word-of-mouth and fan-driven legs, shrugging off controversy for a first-week domestic cume of $129.8 million. Traditional projections hover at $45-51 million (-48% to -54% drop), but traders anticipate better holds through Sunday tallies, fueled by global momentum surpassing $300 million worldwide.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado"Michael" 2º fim de semana de bilheteria
"Michael" 2º fim de semana de bilheteria
>55 milhões 58.8%
50-55 milhões 39%
45-50 milhões <1%
<35m <1%
$58,218 Vol.
$58,218 Vol.
4 mai 2026
<35m
<1%
35-40 milhões
<1%
40-45 milhões
<1%
45-50 milhões
1%
50-55 milhões
39%
>55 milhões
59%
>55 milhões 58.8%
50-55 milhões 39%
45-50 milhões <1%
<35m <1%
$58,218 Vol.
$58,218 Vol.
4 mai 2026
<35m
$5,171 Vol.
<1%
35-40 milhões
$9,855 Vol.
<1%
40-45 milhões
$4,431 Vol.
<1%
45-50 milhões
$9,587 Vol.
1%
50-55 milhões
$13,299 Vol.
39%
>55 milhões
$15,892 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors "Michael" grossing over $55 million in its second domestic weekend at 58.7% implied probability, with 50-55 million close behind at 39.5%, buoyed by a solid $14.4 million second Friday that outperformed some expectations amid competition from "The Devil Wears Prada 2." Despite poor critical reception, the Michael Jackson biopic's record $97 million opening and A CinemaScore from audiences signal strong word-of-mouth and fan-driven legs, shrugging off controversy for a first-week domestic cume of $129.8 million. Traditional projections hover at $45-51 million (-48% to -54% drop), but traders anticipate better holds through Sunday tallies, fueled by global momentum surpassing $300 million worldwide.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 30, 2026, 11:26 AM ET
Volume
$58,218Data de Término
4 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 30, 2026, 11:26 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors "Michael" grossing over $55 million in its second domestic weekend at 58.7% implied probability, with 50-55 million close behind at 39.5%, buoyed by a solid $14.4 million second Friday that outperformed some expectations amid competition from "The Devil Wears Prada 2." Despite poor critical reception, the Michael Jackson biopic's record $97 million opening and A CinemaScore from audiences signal strong word-of-mouth and fan-driven legs, shrugging off controversy for a first-week domestic cume of $129.8 million. Traditional projections hover at $45-51 million (-48% to -54% drop), but traders anticipate better holds through Sunday tallies, fueled by global momentum surpassing $300 million worldwide.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$58,218Data de Término
4 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 30, 2026, 11:26 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors "Michael" grossing over $55 million in its second domestic weekend at 58.7% implied probability, with 50-55 million close behind at 39.5%, buoyed by a solid $14.4 million second Friday that outperformed some expectations amid competition from "The Devil Wears Prada 2." Despite poor critical reception, the Michael Jackson biopic's record $97 million opening and A CinemaScore from audiences signal strong word-of-mouth and fan-driven legs, shrugging off controversy for a first-week domestic cume of $129.8 million. Traditional projections hover at $45-51 million (-48% to -54% drop), but traders anticipate better holds through Sunday tallies, fueled by global momentum surpassing $300 million worldwide.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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