**No** holds an 86% market-implied probability because none of the resolution triggers—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike—have occurred through late September 2026. Atlantic activity remains suppressed amid persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions per National Hurricane Center monitoring, with no qualifying U.S. landfalls. USGS records show no events reaching 8.5 magnitude, while volcanic and bolide monitoring report activity well below thresholds. Historical baselines indicate these extremes are rare in any single year, and current observational data plus model consensus continue to support the low likelihood of any trigger materializing in the remaining months. Traders will watch late-season hurricane forecasts, seismic bulletins, and global volcano alerts for shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoDesastre natural em 2026?
Desastre natural em 2026?
Sim
14% chance
$246,943 Vol.
$246,943 Vol.
28 fev 2027
Sim
14% chance
$246,943 Vol.
$246,943 Vol.
28 fev 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf**No** holds an 86% market-implied probability because none of the resolution triggers—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike—have occurred through late September 2026. Atlantic activity remains suppressed amid persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions per National Hurricane Center monitoring, with no qualifying U.S. landfalls. USGS records show no events reaching 8.5 magnitude, while volcanic and bolide monitoring report activity well below thresholds. Historical baselines indicate these extremes are rare in any single year, and current observational data plus model consensus continue to support the low likelihood of any trigger materializing in the remaining months. Traders will watch late-season hurricane forecasts, seismic bulletins, and global volcano alerts for shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Mercado Aberto: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$246,943Data de Término
1 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf**No** holds an 86% market-implied probability because none of the resolution triggers—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike—have occurred through late September 2026. Atlantic activity remains suppressed amid persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions per National Hurricane Center monitoring, with no qualifying U.S. landfalls. USGS records show no events reaching 8.5 magnitude, while volcanic and bolide monitoring report activity well below thresholds. Historical baselines indicate these extremes are rare in any single year, and current observational data plus model consensus continue to support the low likelihood of any trigger materializing in the remaining months. Traders will watch late-season hurricane forecasts, seismic bulletins, and global volcano alerts for shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$0Data de Término
1 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...**No** holds an 86% market-implied probability because none of the resolution triggers—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike—have occurred through late September 2026. Atlantic activity remains suppressed amid persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions per National Hurricane Center monitoring, with no qualifying U.S. landfalls. USGS records show no events reaching 8.5 magnitude, while volcanic and bolide monitoring report activity well below thresholds. Historical baselines indicate these extremes are rare in any single year, and current observational data plus model consensus continue to support the low likelihood of any trigger materializing in the remaining months. Traders will watch late-season hurricane forecasts, seismic bulletins, and global volcano alerts for shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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