Trader consensus clusters tightly around 4,500-6,000 delayed flights for April 4, mirroring the 2026 average of roughly 5,600 amid spring break travel peaks and lingering FAA/TSA staffing strains from the partial government shutdown. Yesterday's Good Friday disruptions exceeded 2,300 nationwide, led by Chicago O'Hare's 1,247 delays from volume and low clouds persisting into today across Boston, New York, Philadelphia hubs per FAA reports. Houston thunderstorms prompted waivers, while SFO endures a 21-minute average ground delay program and ORD/MDW face forecast constraints. With intraday delays at 3,811 and rising, escalation via Midwest severe weather or hub bottlenecks could lift toward 6,000+; clearing conditions might cap below 4,500.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado4,500-5,000 54%
5,000-5,500 54%
5,500-6,000 54%
4,000-4,500 51%
$52 Vol.
$52 Vol.
<4,000
5%
4,000-4,500
51%
4,500-5,000
54%
5,000-5,500
54%
5,500-6,000
54%
6,000-6,500
51%
6,500-7,000
51%
>7,000
51%
4,500-5,000 54%
5,000-5,500 54%
5,500-6,000 54%
4,000-4,500 51%
$52 Vol.
$52 Vol.
<4,000
5%
4,000-4,500
51%
4,500-5,000
54%
5,000-5,500
54%
5,500-6,000
54%
6,000-6,500
51%
6,500-7,000
51%
>7,000
51%
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 3, 2026, 7:20 PM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterdayResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterdayResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters tightly around 4,500-6,000 delayed flights for April 4, mirroring the 2026 average of roughly 5,600 amid spring break travel peaks and lingering FAA/TSA staffing strains from the partial government shutdown. Yesterday's Good Friday disruptions exceeded 2,300 nationwide, led by Chicago O'Hare's 1,247 delays from volume and low clouds persisting into today across Boston, New York, Philadelphia hubs per FAA reports. Houston thunderstorms prompted waivers, while SFO endures a 21-minute average ground delay program and ORD/MDW face forecast constraints. With intraday delays at 3,811 and rising, escalation via Midwest severe weather or hub bottlenecks could lift toward 6,000+; clearing conditions might cap below 4,500.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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