Trader consensus on the DHS shutdown resolution reflects high uncertainty around the March 22 funding deadline for non-defense agencies, including Homeland Security, with before April 1 slightly favored at 33% amid clustered early-April probabilities signaling expectations of protracted negotiations. Recent House GOP bill text release emphasized border security boosts for CBP and ICE, but drew pushback from fiscal conservatives seeking deeper cuts and Democrats decrying insufficient humanitarian aid, keeping whip counts volatile. Historical patterns of last-minute continuing resolutions have forestalled full shutdowns over 20 times since 2013, yet current partisan rifts on appropriations levels maintain the tight contest. Swift House and Senate passage could resolve before April 1; deadlock risks extension into mid-April vote cycles.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoAntes de 1º de abril 33%
9 a 12 de abril 27%
13 a 16 de abril 27%
17-20 de abril 27%
Antes de 1º de abril
33%
1 a 4 de abril
26%
5-8 de abril
26%
9 a 12 de abril
27%
13 a 16 de abril
27%
17-20 de abril
27%
21-24 de abril
24%
25 a 28 de abril
24%
29-30 de abril
24%
Após 30 de abril
25%
Antes de 1º de abril 33%
9 a 12 de abril 27%
13 a 16 de abril 27%
17-20 de abril 27%
Antes de 1º de abril
33%
1 a 4 de abril
26%
5-8 de abril
26%
9 a 12 de abril
27%
13 a 16 de abril
27%
17-20 de abril
27%
21-24 de abril
24%
25 a 28 de abril
24%
29-30 de abril
24%
Após 30 de abril
25%
The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 25, 2026, 9:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the DHS shutdown resolution reflects high uncertainty around the March 22 funding deadline for non-defense agencies, including Homeland Security, with before April 1 slightly favored at 33% amid clustered early-April probabilities signaling expectations of protracted negotiations. Recent House GOP bill text release emphasized border security boosts for CBP and ICE, but drew pushback from fiscal conservatives seeking deeper cuts and Democrats decrying insufficient humanitarian aid, keeping whip counts volatile. Historical patterns of last-minute continuing resolutions have forestalled full shutdowns over 20 times since 2013, yet current partisan rifts on appropriations levels maintain the tight contest. Swift House and Senate passage could resolve before April 1; deadlock risks extension into mid-April vote cycles.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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