Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the <40mm outcome highest at 39% implied probability for total April precipitation in Seoul, driven by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) observations showing cumulative rainfall around 34mm midway through the month—well below the historical April average of 65-80mm. Persistent summer-like heat, with record highs near 29°C as recently as April 15 amid a blocking high-pressure system, has limited typical spring frontal showers and convective activity. KMA forecast models indicate dry conditions dominating the remaining two weeks, though late-month low-pressure developments could add 10-20mm. Climatological patterns support below-average totals in warm, stable springs, aligning with current low-precip positioning across ranges.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoPrecipitação em Seul em abril?
Precipitação em Seul em abril?
<40mm 59%
65-70mm 16%
75 mm+ 10%
45-50mm 7.7%
$16,660 Vol.
$16,660 Vol.
<40mm
48%
40-45mm
12%
45-50mm
8%
50-55mm
10%
55-60mm
8%
60-65mm
5%
65-70mm
16%
70-75mm
2%
75 mm+
10%
<40mm 59%
65-70mm 16%
75 mm+ 10%
45-50mm 7.7%
$16,660 Vol.
$16,660 Vol.
<40mm
48%
40-45mm
12%
45-50mm
8%
50-55mm
10%
55-60mm
8%
60-65mm
5%
65-70mm
16%
70-75mm
2%
75 mm+
10%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of April at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of April at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the <40mm outcome highest at 39% implied probability for total April precipitation in Seoul, driven by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) observations showing cumulative rainfall around 34mm midway through the month—well below the historical April average of 65-80mm. Persistent summer-like heat, with record highs near 29°C as recently as April 15 amid a blocking high-pressure system, has limited typical spring frontal showers and convective activity. KMA forecast models indicate dry conditions dominating the remaining two weeks, though late-month low-pressure developments could add 10-20mm. Climatological patterns support below-average totals in warm, stable springs, aligning with current low-precip positioning across ranges.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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