Polymarket traders, wagering real capital on S&P 500 year-end 2026 levels, price a fragmented consensus with <$6,000 at 32% implied probability edging out $7,000–$7,500 at 27%, reflecting heightened uncertainty amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions that stalled peace talks last week and March CPI inflation surging to 3.3% year-over-year on energy spikes, prompting the Fed to hold fed funds steady at 3.50%–3.75%. Strong Q1 earnings growth of 13–15%, with 84% beat rates led by tech sector expansion, bolsters moderate upside scenarios, yet sticky inflation curbs rate cut expectations through year-end. Key swing factors include April CPI data due soon, June FOMC guidance, and geopolitical de-escalation, with current SPX near 7,140 testing record highs against recession risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?
O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?
Abaixo de $6.000 32%
$7.000-$7.500 21%
$6.500-$7.000 20%
$6.000–$6.500 14%
$21,921 Vol.
$21,921 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Abaixo de $6.000
32%
$6.000–$6.500
14%
$6.500-$7.000
20%
$7.000-$7.500
21%
$7.500-$8.000
11%
>$8.000
11%
Abaixo de $6.000 32%
$7.000-$7.500 21%
$6.500-$7.000 20%
$6.000–$6.500 14%
$21,921 Vol.
$21,921 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Abaixo de $6.000
$13,165 Vol.
32%
$6.000–$6.500
$1,409 Vol.
14%
$6.500-$7.000
$2,284 Vol.
20%
$7.000-$7.500
$1,069 Vol.
21%
$7.500-$8.000
$1,818 Vol.
11%
>$8.000
$2,176 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders, wagering real capital on S&P 500 year-end 2026 levels, price a fragmented consensus with <$6,000 at 32% implied probability edging out $7,000–$7,500 at 27%, reflecting heightened uncertainty amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions that stalled peace talks last week and March CPI inflation surging to 3.3% year-over-year on energy spikes, prompting the Fed to hold fed funds steady at 3.50%–3.75%. Strong Q1 earnings growth of 13–15%, with 84% beat rates led by tech sector expansion, bolsters moderate upside scenarios, yet sticky inflation curbs rate cut expectations through year-end. Key swing factors include April CPI data due soon, June FOMC guidance, and geopolitical de-escalation, with current SPX near 7,140 testing record highs against recession risks.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Mercado Aberto: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$21,921Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders, wagering real capital on S&P 500 year-end 2026 levels, price a fragmented consensus with <$6,000 at 32% implied probability edging out $7,000–$7,500 at 27%, reflecting heightened uncertainty amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions that stalled peace talks last week and March CPI inflation surging to 3.3% year-over-year on energy spikes, prompting the Fed to hold fed funds steady at 3.50%–3.75%. Strong Q1 earnings growth of 13–15%, with 84% beat rates led by tech sector expansion, bolsters moderate upside scenarios, yet sticky inflation curbs rate cut expectations through year-end. Key swing factors include April CPI data due soon, June FOMC guidance, and geopolitical de-escalation, with current SPX near 7,140 testing record highs against recession risks.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$21,921Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital on S&P 500 year-end 2026 levels, price a fragmented consensus with <$6,000 at 32% implied probability edging out $7,000–$7,500 at 27%, reflecting heightened uncertainty amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions that stalled peace talks last week and March CPI inflation surging to 3.3% year-over-year on energy spikes, prompting the Fed to hold fed funds steady at 3.50%–3.75%. Strong Q1 earnings growth of 13–15%, with 84% beat rates led by tech sector expansion, bolsters moderate upside scenarios, yet sticky inflation curbs rate cut expectations through year-end. Key swing factors include April CPI data due soon, June FOMC guidance, and geopolitical de-escalation, with current SPX near 7,140 testing record highs against recession risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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