Polymarket traders assign a leading 30.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below 6,000 by end-2026, edging out clustered mid-range outcomes around 6,000–7,500 (collectively ~65%), reflecting competitive dynamics between earnings momentum and macro headwinds from current levels near 7,230. Recent all-time highs last week stemmed from robust Q1 earnings beats, yet sentiment tilts cautious amid sticky March CPI inflation at 3.3% annually, softening March nonfarm payrolls (+178,000 jobs, unemployment steady at 4.3%), and the FOMC's March dot plot projecting just one more Fed funds rate cut this year toward 3.125% with 10-year Treasury yields at 4.4%. Key differentiators include April CPI data due May 12 and Q2 earnings, where reacceleration in inflation could cap upside while sustained profit growth supports 7,000+ resolutions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?
O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?
Abaixo de $6.000 31%
$7.000-$7.500 27%
$6.000–$6.500 24%
$6.500-$7.000 21%
$22,233 Vol.
$22,233 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Abaixo de $6.000
31%
$6.000–$6.500
24%
$6.500-$7.000
21%
$7.000-$7.500
22%
$7.500-$8.000
11%
>$8.000
9%
Abaixo de $6.000 31%
$7.000-$7.500 27%
$6.000–$6.500 24%
$6.500-$7.000 21%
$22,233 Vol.
$22,233 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Abaixo de $6.000
$13,455 Vol.
31%
$6.000–$6.500
$1,409 Vol.
24%
$6.500-$7.000
$2,287 Vol.
21%
$7.000-$7.500
$1,072 Vol.
22%
$7.500-$8.000
$1,825 Vol.
11%
>$8.000
$2,184 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders assign a leading 30.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below 6,000 by end-2026, edging out clustered mid-range outcomes around 6,000–7,500 (collectively ~65%), reflecting competitive dynamics between earnings momentum and macro headwinds from current levels near 7,230. Recent all-time highs last week stemmed from robust Q1 earnings beats, yet sentiment tilts cautious amid sticky March CPI inflation at 3.3% annually, softening March nonfarm payrolls (+178,000 jobs, unemployment steady at 4.3%), and the FOMC's March dot plot projecting just one more Fed funds rate cut this year toward 3.125% with 10-year Treasury yields at 4.4%. Key differentiators include April CPI data due May 12 and Q2 earnings, where reacceleration in inflation could cap upside while sustained profit growth supports 7,000+ resolutions.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Mercado Aberto: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$22,233Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders assign a leading 30.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below 6,000 by end-2026, edging out clustered mid-range outcomes around 6,000–7,500 (collectively ~65%), reflecting competitive dynamics between earnings momentum and macro headwinds from current levels near 7,230. Recent all-time highs last week stemmed from robust Q1 earnings beats, yet sentiment tilts cautious amid sticky March CPI inflation at 3.3% annually, softening March nonfarm payrolls (+178,000 jobs, unemployment steady at 4.3%), and the FOMC's March dot plot projecting just one more Fed funds rate cut this year toward 3.125% with 10-year Treasury yields at 4.4%. Key differentiators include April CPI data due May 12 and Q2 earnings, where reacceleration in inflation could cap upside while sustained profit growth supports 7,000+ resolutions.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$22,233Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a leading 30.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below 6,000 by end-2026, edging out clustered mid-range outcomes around 6,000–7,500 (collectively ~65%), reflecting competitive dynamics between earnings momentum and macro headwinds from current levels near 7,230. Recent all-time highs last week stemmed from robust Q1 earnings beats, yet sentiment tilts cautious amid sticky March CPI inflation at 3.3% annually, softening March nonfarm payrolls (+178,000 jobs, unemployment steady at 4.3%), and the FOMC's March dot plot projecting just one more Fed funds rate cut this year toward 3.125% with 10-year Treasury yields at 4.4%. Key differentiators include April CPI data due May 12 and Q2 earnings, where reacceleration in inflation could cap upside while sustained profit growth supports 7,000+ resolutions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions