Elevated small-bank stress from commercial real estate exposures and unrealized securities losses supports the 65.5% market-implied probability of at least one additional FDIC-insured failure by year-end. Five institutions have already closed in 2026, including Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank ($68 million assets) on August 21 and Small Business Bank ($73 million) in July, exceeding the two failures recorded in each of the prior two years. While large banks cleared the Fed’s 2026 stress test with aggregate CET1 ratios remaining above 11% after absorbing $708 billion in projected losses, smaller lenders continue to face thin margins, CRE price declines, and elevated problem-loan ratios. Q3 earnings releases and any further CRE-related provisions will be the key near-term catalysts for trader positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
67% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
Sim
67% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Elevated small-bank stress from commercial real estate exposures and unrealized securities losses supports the 65.5% market-implied probability of at least one additional FDIC-insured failure by year-end. Five institutions have already closed in 2026, including Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank ($68 million assets) on August 21 and Small Business Bank ($73 million) in July, exceeding the two failures recorded in each of the prior two years. While large banks cleared the Fed’s 2026 stress test with aggregate CET1 ratios remaining above 11% after absorbing $708 billion in projected losses, smaller lenders continue to face thin margins, CRE price declines, and elevated problem-loan ratios. Q3 earnings releases and any further CRE-related provisions will be the key near-term catalysts for trader positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volume
$1,837Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Elevated small-bank stress from commercial real estate exposures and unrealized securities losses supports the 65.5% market-implied probability of at least one additional FDIC-insured failure by year-end. Five institutions have already closed in 2026, including Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank ($68 million assets) on August 21 and Small Business Bank ($73 million) in July, exceeding the two failures recorded in each of the prior two years. While large banks cleared the Fed’s 2026 stress test with aggregate CET1 ratios remaining above 11% after absorbing $708 billion in projected losses, smaller lenders continue to face thin margins, CRE price declines, and elevated problem-loan ratios. Q3 earnings releases and any further CRE-related provisions will be the key near-term catalysts for trader positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volume
$1,837Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated small-bank stress from commercial real estate exposures and unrealized securities losses supports the 65.5% market-implied probability of at least one additional FDIC-insured failure by year-end. Five institutions have already closed in 2026, including Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank ($68 million assets) on August 21 and Small Business Bank ($73 million) in July, exceeding the two failures recorded in each of the prior two years. While large banks cleared the Fed’s 2026 stress test with aggregate CET1 ratios remaining above 11% after absorbing $708 billion in projected losses, smaller lenders continue to face thin margins, CRE price declines, and elevated problem-loan ratios. Q3 earnings releases and any further CRE-related provisions will be the key near-term catalysts for trader positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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