Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a stable U.S. banking sector with minimal failure risk through 2026, underscored by just one small institution—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—failing on January 30 amid liquidity strains, costing the FDIC $19.7 million, following two apiece in 2024 and 2025. Regional banks' heavy commercial real estate (CRE) exposure persists as the key vulnerability, with office loan delinquencies in commercial mortgage-backed securities surging to 12.34% in January and $1.5 trillion in maturities looming by year-end. Federal Reserve 2026 stress test scenarios highlight CRE downturns and severe recession risks, with results due mid-year; easing Treasury yields and deposit growth bolster capital buffers, while Q1 earnings and April nonfarm payrolls data will signal potential shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoNOVO
31 dez 2026
Truist
46%
Lloyds
46%
KeyBank
46%
US Bank
46%
Scotiabank
46%
BMO
33%
BNP Paribas
26%
Deutsche Bank
26%
Citigroup
26%
BNY
26%
Wells Fargo
26%
Bank of America
26%
Santander
26%
Morgan Stanley
25%
JPMorgan Chase
24%
UBS
23%
Goldman Sachs
21%
HSBC
16%
RBC
11%
$15 Vol.
Truist
$0 Vol.
46%
Lloyds
$0 Vol.
46%
KeyBank
$0 Vol.
46%
US Bank
$0 Vol.
46%
Scotiabank
$0 Vol.
46%
BMO
$0 Vol.
33%
BNP Paribas
$0 Vol.
26%
Deutsche Bank
$0 Vol.
26%
Citigroup
$0 Vol.
26%
BNY
$0 Vol.
26%
Wells Fargo
$0 Vol.
26%
Bank of America
$0 Vol.
26%
Santander
$0 Vol.
26%
Morgan Stanley
$0 Vol.
25%
JPMorgan Chase
$0 Vol.
24%
UBS
$15 Vol.
23%
Goldman Sachs
$0 Vol.
21%
HSBC
$0 Vol.
16%
RBC
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open until April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a stable U.S. banking sector with minimal failure risk through 2026, underscored by just one small institution—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—failing on January 30 amid liquidity strains, costing the FDIC $19.7 million, following two apiece in 2024 and 2025. Regional banks' heavy commercial real estate (CRE) exposure persists as the key vulnerability, with office loan delinquencies in commercial mortgage-backed securities surging to 12.34% in January and $1.5 trillion in maturities looming by year-end. Federal Reserve 2026 stress test scenarios highlight CRE downturns and severe recession risks, with results due mid-year; easing Treasury yields and deposit growth bolster capital buffers, while Q1 earnings and April nonfarm payrolls data will signal potential shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open until April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open until April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 8, 2026, 7:20 PM ET
Volume
$15Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 7:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open until April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a stable U.S. banking sector with minimal failure risk through 2026, underscored by just one small institution—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—failing on January 30 amid liquidity strains, costing the FDIC $19.7 million, following two apiece in 2024 and 2025. Regional banks' heavy commercial real estate (CRE) exposure persists as the key vulnerability, with office loan delinquencies in commercial mortgage-backed securities surging to 12.34% in January and $1.5 trillion in maturities looming by year-end. Federal Reserve 2026 stress test scenarios highlight CRE downturns and severe recession risks, with results due mid-year; easing Treasury yields and deposit growth bolster capital buffers, while Q1 earnings and April nonfarm payrolls data will signal potential shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open until April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open until April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$15Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 7:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a stable U.S. banking sector with minimal failure risk through 2026, underscored by just one small institution—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—failing on January 30 amid liquidity strains, costing the FDIC $19.7 million, following two apiece in 2024 and 2025. Regional banks' heavy commercial real estate (CRE) exposure persists as the key vulnerability, with office loan delinquencies in commercial mortgage-backed securities surging to 12.34% in January and $1.5 trillion in maturities looming by year-end. Federal Reserve 2026 stress test scenarios highlight CRE downturns and severe recession risks, with results due mid-year; easing Treasury yields and deposit growth bolster capital buffers, while Q1 earnings and April nonfarm payrolls data will signal potential shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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