Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for a US bank failure by December 31, 2026, driven by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's (FDIC) closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in Chicago on January 30, 2026—the first such event this year. This $261 million-asset institution succumbed to isolated credit weaknesses amid broader commercial real estate strains, fully satisfying standard resolution criteria for FDIC-declared failures and eliminating uncertainty for the outcome. With no systemic contagion evident in stable Treasury yields or bank delinquency rates, tail-risk scenarios like regulatory reversal remain implausibly remote, affirming prediction markets' efficiency in aggregating skin-in-the-game sentiment on foregone conclusions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$13,600 Vol.
$13,600 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$13,600 Vol.
$13,600 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for a US bank failure by December 31, 2026, driven by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's (FDIC) closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in Chicago on January 30, 2026—the first such event this year. This $261 million-asset institution succumbed to isolated credit weaknesses amid broader commercial real estate strains, fully satisfying standard resolution criteria for FDIC-declared failures and eliminating uncertainty for the outcome. With no systemic contagion evident in stable Treasury yields or bank delinquency rates, tail-risk scenarios like regulatory reversal remain implausibly remote, affirming prediction markets' efficiency in aggregating skin-in-the-game sentiment on foregone conclusions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 8, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Volume
$13,600Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Sim
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Sim
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for a US bank failure by December 31, 2026, driven by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's (FDIC) closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in Chicago on January 30, 2026—the first such event this year. This $261 million-asset institution succumbed to isolated credit weaknesses amid broader commercial real estate strains, fully satisfying standard resolution criteria for FDIC-declared failures and eliminating uncertainty for the outcome. With no systemic contagion evident in stable Treasury yields or bank delinquency rates, tail-risk scenarios like regulatory reversal remain implausibly remote, affirming prediction markets' efficiency in aggregating skin-in-the-game sentiment on foregone conclusions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volume
$13,600Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Sim
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Sim
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for a US bank failure by December 31, 2026, driven by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's (FDIC) closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in Chicago on January 30, 2026—the first such event this year. This $261 million-asset institution succumbed to isolated credit weaknesses amid broader commercial real estate strains, fully satisfying standard resolution criteria for FDIC-declared failures and eliminating uncertainty for the outcome. With no systemic contagion evident in stable Treasury yields or bank delinquency rates, tail-risk scenarios like regulatory reversal remain implausibly remote, affirming prediction markets' efficiency in aggregating skin-in-the-game sentiment on foregone conclusions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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