**Trader sentiment for the September 2026 U.S. tornado total centers on below-average activity through the shoulder season.** Preliminary Storm Prediction Center data through September 13 show 28 confirmed tornadoes, well below the climatological average of roughly 66, with early-month clusters producing about 10 surveyed paths and 29 local storm reports between September 4–14. Absent strong tropical cyclone landfalls—which historically boost southern and eastern counts—activity has remained sparse, consistent with the typical decline in mid-latitude forcing and jet-stream positioning. Recent convective outlooks indicate only marginal severe risk into late September, limiting additional opportunities. These conditions position the 25–49 bin as the clear leader at 62% implied probability, while higher bins reflect the low odds of a late-month surge pushing totals toward or above average.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTornados nos EUA em setembro de 2026
Tornados nos EUA em setembro de 2026
25 - 49 62%
50 - 74 55%
75 - 124 15%
Menos de 25 3.2%
NOVO
NOVO
14 out 2026
Menos de 25
3%
25 - 49
62%
50 - 74
55%
75 - 124
15%
125 ou mais
3%
25 - 49 62%
50 - 74 55%
75 - 124 15%
Menos de 25 3.2%
NOVO
NOVO
14 out 2026
Menos de 25
$50 Vol.
3%
25 - 49
$0 Vol.
62%
50 - 74
$0 Vol.
55%
75 - 124
$22 Vol.
15%
125 ou mais
$45 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader sentiment for the September 2026 U.S. tornado total centers on below-average activity through the shoulder season.** Preliminary Storm Prediction Center data through September 13 show 28 confirmed tornadoes, well below the climatological average of roughly 66, with early-month clusters producing about 10 surveyed paths and 29 local storm reports between September 4–14. Absent strong tropical cyclone landfalls—which historically boost southern and eastern counts—activity has remained sparse, consistent with the typical decline in mid-latitude forcing and jet-stream positioning. Recent convective outlooks indicate only marginal severe risk into late September, limiting additional opportunities. These conditions position the 25–49 bin as the clear leader at 62% implied probability, while higher bins reflect the low odds of a late-month surge pushing totals toward or above average.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
Volume
$118Data de Término
14 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader sentiment for the September 2026 U.S. tornado total centers on below-average activity through the shoulder season.** Preliminary Storm Prediction Center data through September 13 show 28 confirmed tornadoes, well below the climatological average of roughly 66, with early-month clusters producing about 10 surveyed paths and 29 local storm reports between September 4–14. Absent strong tropical cyclone landfalls—which historically boost southern and eastern counts—activity has remained sparse, consistent with the typical decline in mid-latitude forcing and jet-stream positioning. Recent convective outlooks indicate only marginal severe risk into late September, limiting additional opportunities. These conditions position the 25–49 bin as the clear leader at 62% implied probability, while higher bins reflect the low odds of a late-month surge pushing totals toward or above average.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$118Data de Término
14 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for the September 2026 U.S. tornado total centers on below-average activity through the shoulder season.** Preliminary Storm Prediction Center data through September 13 show 28 confirmed tornadoes, well below the climatological average of roughly 66, with early-month clusters producing about 10 surveyed paths and 29 local storm reports between September 4–14. Absent strong tropical cyclone landfalls—which historically boost southern and eastern counts—activity has remained sparse, consistent with the typical decline in mid-latitude forcing and jet-stream positioning. Recent convective outlooks indicate only marginal severe risk into late September, limiting additional opportunities. These conditions position the 25–49 bin as the clear leader at 62% implied probability, while higher bins reflect the low odds of a late-month surge pushing totals toward or above average.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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