Apple’s established annual cadence of unveiling premium iPhone models in September underpins the 97% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent reporting confirms the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, along with a new foldable model, remain scheduled for that window, consistent with the company’s pattern since the early 2010s. Traders weigh this history heavily, as supply-chain and development cycles have supported timely launches even amid past disruptions. While near-term catalysts like the expected early-September event could further solidify timing, realistic risks such as component shortages, regulatory hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen hardware issues could still push certain variants later without derailing the overall 2026 outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
A Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
Sim
97% chance
$167,271 Vol.
$167,271 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
97% chance
$167,271 Vol.
$167,271 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual cadence of unveiling premium iPhone models in September underpins the 97% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent reporting confirms the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, along with a new foldable model, remain scheduled for that window, consistent with the company’s pattern since the early 2010s. Traders weigh this history heavily, as supply-chain and development cycles have supported timely launches even amid past disruptions. While near-term catalysts like the expected early-September event could further solidify timing, realistic risks such as component shortages, regulatory hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen hardware issues could still push certain variants later without derailing the overall 2026 outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$167,271Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual cadence of unveiling premium iPhone models in September underpins the 97% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent reporting confirms the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, along with a new foldable model, remain scheduled for that window, consistent with the company’s pattern since the early 2010s. Traders weigh this history heavily, as supply-chain and development cycles have supported timely launches even amid past disruptions. While near-term catalysts like the expected early-September event could further solidify timing, realistic risks such as component shortages, regulatory hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen hardware issues could still push certain variants later without derailing the overall 2026 outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$167,271Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s established annual cadence of unveiling premium iPhone models in September underpins the 97% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent reporting confirms the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, along with a new foldable model, remain scheduled for that window, consistent with the company’s pattern since the early 2010s. Traders weigh this history heavily, as supply-chain and development cycles have supported timely launches even amid past disruptions. While near-term catalysts like the expected early-September event could further solidify timing, realistic risks such as component shortages, regulatory hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen hardware issues could still push certain variants later without derailing the overall 2026 outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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