Market icon
Tecnologia·Claude

Claude vai descer em __ dias em maio?

Market icon
Tecnologia·Claude

Claude vai descer em __ dias em maio?

abr 30

mai 31

abr 30

mai 31

12+ 37%

9-11 35%

6-8 25%

3-5 20%

Polymarket
NOVO

12+ 37%

9-11 35%

6-8 25%

3-5 20%

Polymarket
NOVO

0-2

$17 Vol.

16%

3-5

$0 Vol.

20%

6-8

$0 Vol.

25%

9-11

$0 Vol.

35%

12+

$0 Vol.

37%

This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent outages plaguing Anthropic's Claude large language model throughout March 2026—spanning at least six days including major disruptions on March 2, 11, 23, and 27—have fueled trader consensus for elevated downtime in May, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 9-11 days (34.5%) and 12+ days (37.0%). This reflects infrastructure strain from rapid scaling to chase OpenAI's revenue lead, high enterprise loads, and government adoption, as evidenced by status.anthropic.com reports of elevated errors and partial failures despite 98% monthly uptime. Competitive pressures in the AI sector amplify risks, with no announced fixes; traders eye April patterns and potential Claude updates as key swing factors before May resolution.

This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.

Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.

A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.

This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volume
$17
Data de Término
31 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent outages plaguing Anthropic's Claude large language model throughout March 2026—spanning at least six days including major disruptions on March 2, 11, 23, and 27—have fueled trader consensus for elevated downtime in May, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 9-11 days (34.5%) and 12+ days (37.0%). This reflects infrastructure strain from rapid scaling to chase OpenAI's revenue lead, high enterprise loads, and government adoption, as evidenced by status.anthropic.com reports of elevated errors and partial failures despite 98% monthly uptime. Competitive pressures in the AI sector amplify risks, with no announced fixes; traders eye April patterns and potential Claude updates as key swing factors before May resolution.

This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.

Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.

A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.

This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volume
$17
Data de Término
31 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Claude vai descer em __ dias em maio?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "12+" at 37%, followed by "9-11" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Claude vai descer em __ dias em maio?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 30, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Claude vai descer em __ dias em maio?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Claude vai descer em __ dias em maio?" is "12+" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "9-11" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Claude vai descer em __ dias em maio?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.