Trader consensus prices an 85% chance against another Iranian diplomat being expelled by April 30, following Argentina's April 2 declaration of chargé d'affaires Mohsen Soltani Tehrani as persona non grata—ordering his exit within 48 hours over Tehran's alleged terrorism support after listing the IRGC as a terrorist group. This capped a late-March wave where Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Lebanon expelled Iranian envoys amid missile attacks and security threats. Absent fresh diplomatic escalations or official announcements in the ensuing week, and with no scheduled summits or crises poised to trigger further actions, markets view additional expulsions as unlikely before the deadline despite persistent regional tensions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЕще один иранский дипломат выдворен до 30 апреля?
Еще один иранский дипломат выдворен до 30 апреля?
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 апр. 2026 г.
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 апр. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices an 85% chance against another Iranian diplomat being expelled by April 30, following Argentina's April 2 declaration of chargé d'affaires Mohsen Soltani Tehrani as persona non grata—ordering his exit within 48 hours over Tehran's alleged terrorism support after listing the IRGC as a terrorist group. This capped a late-March wave where Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Lebanon expelled Iranian envoys amid missile attacks and security threats. Absent fresh diplomatic escalations or official announcements in the ensuing week, and with no scheduled summits or crises poised to trigger further actions, markets view additional expulsions as unlikely before the deadline despite persistent regional tensions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Объем
$2,562Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices an 85% chance against another Iranian diplomat being expelled by April 30, following Argentina's April 2 declaration of chargé d'affaires Mohsen Soltani Tehrani as persona non grata—ordering his exit within 48 hours over Tehran's alleged terrorism support after listing the IRGC as a terrorist group. This capped a late-March wave where Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Lebanon expelled Iranian envoys amid missile attacks and security threats. Absent fresh diplomatic escalations or official announcements in the ensuing week, and with no scheduled summits or crises poised to trigger further actions, markets view additional expulsions as unlikely before the deadline despite persistent regional tensions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$2,562Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 85% chance against another Iranian diplomat being expelled by April 30, following Argentina's April 2 declaration of chargé d'affaires Mohsen Soltani Tehrani as persona non grata—ordering his exit within 48 hours over Tehran's alleged terrorism support after listing the IRGC as a terrorist group. This capped a late-March wave where Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Lebanon expelled Iranian envoys amid missile attacks and security threats. Absent fresh diplomatic escalations or official announcements in the ensuing week, and with no scheduled summits or crises poised to trigger further actions, markets view additional expulsions as unlikely before the deadline despite persistent regional tensions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы