Recent polling shows Die Linke and the CDU in a tight contest for first place at roughly 20-23 percent each, followed closely by the AfD, Greens, and a weaker SPD, producing a five-party parliament with no two-party majority. This fragmentation, combined with the personalized proportional system’s 78 direct mandates and leveling-seat rules, creates uncertainty over overhang effects that determine final chamber size above the 130-seat minimum. Traders price the 143–147 range highest because current vote shares and constituency projections point to moderate expansion similar to prior cycles, while the close race between leading parties limits decisive shifts in direct-mandate outcomes that could push totals sharply higher or lower. Late swings in turnout or small-party thresholds remain the main variables that could separate the ranges before the September 20 vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено143–147 32%
<143 24%
153–157 17%
148–152 14%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
<143
24%
143–147
32%
148–152
14%
153–157
17%
158–162
12%
163+
10%
143–147 32%
<143 24%
153–157 17%
148–152 14%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
<143
$0 Объем
24%
143–147
$553 Объем
32%
148–152
$0 Объем
14%
153–157
$83 Объем
17%
158–162
$23 Объем
12%
163+
$0 Объем
10%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows Die Linke and the CDU in a tight contest for first place at roughly 20-23 percent each, followed closely by the AfD, Greens, and a weaker SPD, producing a five-party parliament with no two-party majority. This fragmentation, combined with the personalized proportional system’s 78 direct mandates and leveling-seat rules, creates uncertainty over overhang effects that determine final chamber size above the 130-seat minimum. Traders price the 143–147 range highest because current vote shares and constituency projections point to moderate expansion similar to prior cycles, while the close race between leading parties limits decisive shifts in direct-mandate outcomes that could push totals sharply higher or lower. Late swings in turnout or small-party thresholds remain the main variables that could separate the ranges before the September 20 vote.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Объем
$660Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows Die Linke and the CDU in a tight contest for first place at roughly 20-23 percent each, followed closely by the AfD, Greens, and a weaker SPD, producing a five-party parliament with no two-party majority. This fragmentation, combined with the personalized proportional system’s 78 direct mandates and leveling-seat rules, creates uncertainty over overhang effects that determine final chamber size above the 130-seat minimum. Traders price the 143–147 range highest because current vote shares and constituency projections point to moderate expansion similar to prior cycles, while the close race between leading parties limits decisive shifts in direct-mandate outcomes that could push totals sharply higher or lower. Late swings in turnout or small-party thresholds remain the main variables that could separate the ranges before the September 20 vote.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$660Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows Die Linke and the CDU in a tight contest for first place at roughly 20-23 percent each, followed closely by the AfD, Greens, and a weaker SPD, producing a five-party parliament with no two-party majority. This fragmentation, combined with the personalized proportional system’s 78 direct mandates and leveling-seat rules, creates uncertainty over overhang effects that determine final chamber size above the 130-seat minimum. Traders price the 143–147 range highest because current vote shares and constituency projections point to moderate expansion similar to prior cycles, while the close race between leading parties limits decisive shifts in direct-mandate outcomes that could push totals sharply higher or lower. Late swings in turnout or small-party thresholds remain the main variables that could separate the ranges before the September 20 vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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