Persistent low water levels on the Rhine, with the Kaub gauge at 29 cm as of early September 2026—the lowest in three decades—stem from prolonged drought, below-normal alpine precipitation, and repeated heat waves that have kept flows well below navigation thresholds. Official updates indicate the situation is unlikely to ease substantially before mid-September, with the typical low-water season only beginning then and forecasts pointing to continued dry conditions. Historical recoveries from similar events required sustained rainfall over multiple weeks, aligning trader consensus on October as the window most consistent with seasonal precipitation patterns and current hydrology. Earlier resolution remains improbable absent an immediate shift in weather, while extension past October reflects uncertainty over the depth of the deficit.