Ongoing drought and record-low water levels across the Danube basin, driven by prolonged heatwaves and minimal precipitation through July and early August 2026, have kept navigation restricted and hydropower output curtailed in multiple countries. Traders assign roughly equal weight to mid- and late-September versus October recovery windows because seasonal rainfall patterns remain uncertain, with hydrological models showing high sensitivity to any late-summer or early-autumn precipitation shifts. Continued above-average temperatures could extend low-flow conditions into October, while timely basin-wide rains would accelerate rebound by mid-September. The small probability assigned to no recovery by November 1 reflects tail risks from sustained dry spells, underscoring how near-term weather developments will determine whether levels normalize before fall ends.