Forecast models from AEMET and supporting ensembles project a peak of 39–40 °C in Madrid on August 13 under a strengthening high-pressure ridge, clear skies, and light winds that favor strong daytime heating over the central plateau. Recent observations show daytime maxima climbing from 36 °C on August 11 toward 38 °C on the 12th, consistent with the seasonal tendency for late-summer heat to intensify when subsidence and dry northerly flow suppress cloud cover and moisture. Ensemble spread remains modest, with only small risks of slight under- or over-forecasting depending on boundary-layer mixing and any late-day convection. These conditions place the market’s leading 39 °C (50.5 %) and 40 °C (32.5 %) outcomes in line with the most probable model consensus while leaving limited room for outliers above 41 °C or below 38 °C. Updated AEMET and ECMWF runs expected through the 12th will provide the final refinement before resolution.