Recent heatwave conditions across northern France, with Météo-France issuing yellow alerts, have driven trader consensus toward minimum temperatures of 19–22°C in Paris on August 13. Persistent high pressure and southerly flow are limiting nocturnal cooling, while the urban heat island effect keeps overnight lows elevated near 22°C according to current model guidance. This contrasts with typical mid-August climatology of 15–17°C lows and explains the tight clustering around 20–21°C outcomes. Updated ensemble runs from European and global models, plus any Météo-France briefing on Thursday morning, could shift implied probabilities if winds strengthen or cloud cover increases radiative cooling overnight.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Париже 13 августа?
Самая низкая температура в Париже 13 августа?
21°C 37%
20°C 26%
19°C 18%
22°C 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
13 авг. 2026 г.
18°C или ниже
7%
19°C
18%
20°C
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
15%
23°C
7%
24°C
5%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C или выше
<1%
21°C 37%
20°C 26%
19°C 18%
22°C 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
13 авг. 2026 г.
18°C или ниже
$1 Объем
7%
19°C
$44 Объем
18%
20°C
$0 Объем
26%
21°C
$5 Объем
26%
22°C
$139 Объем
15%
23°C
$0 Объем
7%
24°C
$286 Объем
5%
25°C
$343 Объем
<1%
26°C
$261 Объем
1%
27°C
$12 Объем
4%
28°C или выше
$12 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent heatwave conditions across northern France, with Météo-France issuing yellow alerts, have driven trader consensus toward minimum temperatures of 19–22°C in Paris on August 13. Persistent high pressure and southerly flow are limiting nocturnal cooling, while the urban heat island effect keeps overnight lows elevated near 22°C according to current model guidance. This contrasts with typical mid-August climatology of 15–17°C lows and explains the tight clustering around 20–21°C outcomes. Updated ensemble runs from European and global models, plus any Météo-France briefing on Thursday morning, could shift implied probabilities if winds strengthen or cloud cover increases radiative cooling overnight.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Объем
$1,102Дата окончания
13 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent heatwave conditions across northern France, with Météo-France issuing yellow alerts, have driven trader consensus toward minimum temperatures of 19–22°C in Paris on August 13. Persistent high pressure and southerly flow are limiting nocturnal cooling, while the urban heat island effect keeps overnight lows elevated near 22°C according to current model guidance. This contrasts with typical mid-August climatology of 15–17°C lows and explains the tight clustering around 20–21°C outcomes. Updated ensemble runs from European and global models, plus any Météo-France briefing on Thursday morning, could shift implied probabilities if winds strengthen or cloud cover increases radiative cooling overnight.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$1,102Дата окончания
13 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent heatwave conditions across northern France, with Météo-France issuing yellow alerts, have driven trader consensus toward minimum temperatures of 19–22°C in Paris on August 13. Persistent high pressure and southerly flow are limiting nocturnal cooling, while the urban heat island effect keeps overnight lows elevated near 22°C according to current model guidance. This contrasts with typical mid-August climatology of 15–17°C lows and explains the tight clustering around 20–21°C outcomes. Updated ensemble runs from European and global models, plus any Météo-France briefing on Thursday morning, could shift implied probabilities if winds strengthen or cloud cover increases radiative cooling overnight.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы