Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier holds a commanding position in California's 10th congressional district, a seat with a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+18 partisan voting index and the party's 66.5% margin in the prior general election. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5% implied probability of winning the November 3, 2026, general election, driven by the district's East Bay composition, the incumbent's long tenure since 2015, committee roles on transportation and infrastructure, and recent legislative activity securing local funding. Multiple Democratic challengers are competing in the June 2 primary, while Republican candidates remain limited. A Democratic primary upset or unexpected general-election shift in turnout or national conditions could alter the outcome, though the district's structural advantages have historically favored the party.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-10 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-10 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$16,873 Объем
$16,873 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
94%
Республиканская партия
7%
$16,873 Объем
$16,873 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$11,249 Объем
94%
Республиканская партия
$5,624 Объем
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier holds a commanding position in California's 10th congressional district, a seat with a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+18 partisan voting index and the party's 66.5% margin in the prior general election. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5% implied probability of winning the November 3, 2026, general election, driven by the district's East Bay composition, the incumbent's long tenure since 2015, committee roles on transportation and infrastructure, and recent legislative activity securing local funding. Multiple Democratic challengers are competing in the June 2 primary, while Republican candidates remain limited. A Democratic primary upset or unexpected general-election shift in turnout or national conditions could alter the outcome, though the district's structural advantages have historically favored the party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Объем
$16,873Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier holds a commanding position in California's 10th congressional district, a seat with a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+18 partisan voting index and the party's 66.5% margin in the prior general election. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5% implied probability of winning the November 3, 2026, general election, driven by the district's East Bay composition, the incumbent's long tenure since 2015, committee roles on transportation and infrastructure, and recent legislative activity securing local funding. Multiple Democratic challengers are competing in the June 2 primary, while Republican candidates remain limited. A Democratic primary upset or unexpected general-election shift in turnout or national conditions could alter the outcome, though the district's structural advantages have historically favored the party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$16,873Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier holds a commanding position in California's 10th congressional district, a seat with a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+18 partisan voting index and the party's 66.5% margin in the prior general election. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5% implied probability of winning the November 3, 2026, general election, driven by the district's East Bay composition, the incumbent's long tenure since 2015, committee roles on transportation and infrastructure, and recent legislative activity securing local funding. Multiple Democratic challengers are competing in the June 2 primary, while Republican candidates remain limited. A Democratic primary upset or unexpected general-election shift in turnout or national conditions could alter the outcome, though the district's structural advantages have historically favored the party.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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