**Democratic Party** holds a commanding 94.7% implied probability in the CA-06 House race because the June 2, 2026 top-two primary advanced Democrat Richard Pan against independent Kevin Kiley (former Republican who switched affiliation and district after Proposition 50 redistricting). The Sacramento-area district carries a D+5 Partisan Voter Index, a modest Democratic registration edge, and ratings from Solid to Likely Democratic across forecasters. Kiley’s independent status means even a competitive showing would not deliver a Republican victory under the market’s party-based resolution. Recent polling shows Pan with a narrow lead, consistent with the district’s structural lean and limited GOP organizational presence following the map changes. A realistic challenge to Democratic control would require an unusually strong Kiley performance driven by incumbency name recognition or unusually high crossover support among no-party-preference voters, though the underlying partisan composition makes such an outcome unlikely.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-06 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-06 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$49,289 Объем
$49,289 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
95%
Республиканская партия
3%
$49,289 Объем
$49,289 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$25,046 Объем
95%
Республиканская партия
$24,243 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic Party** holds a commanding 94.7% implied probability in the CA-06 House race because the June 2, 2026 top-two primary advanced Democrat Richard Pan against independent Kevin Kiley (former Republican who switched affiliation and district after Proposition 50 redistricting). The Sacramento-area district carries a D+5 Partisan Voter Index, a modest Democratic registration edge, and ratings from Solid to Likely Democratic across forecasters.
Kiley’s independent status means even a competitive showing would not deliver a Republican victory under the market’s party-based resolution. Recent polling shows Pan with a narrow lead, consistent with the district’s structural lean and limited GOP organizational presence following the map changes.
A realistic challenge to Democratic control would require an unusually strong Kiley performance driven by incumbency name recognition or unusually high crossover support among no-party-preference voters, though the underlying partisan composition makes such an outcome unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Объем
$49,289Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic Party** holds a commanding 94.7% implied probability in the CA-06 House race because the June 2, 2026 top-two primary advanced Democrat Richard Pan against independent Kevin Kiley (former Republican who switched affiliation and district after Proposition 50 redistricting). The Sacramento-area district carries a D+5 Partisan Voter Index, a modest Democratic registration edge, and ratings from Solid to Likely Democratic across forecasters.
Kiley’s independent status means even a competitive showing would not deliver a Republican victory under the market’s party-based resolution. Recent polling shows Pan with a narrow lead, consistent with the district’s structural lean and limited GOP organizational presence following the map changes.
A realistic challenge to Democratic control would require an unusually strong Kiley performance driven by incumbency name recognition or unusually high crossover support among no-party-preference voters, though the underlying partisan composition makes such an outcome unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$49,289Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic Party** holds a commanding 94.7% implied probability in the CA-06 House race because the June 2, 2026 top-two primary advanced Democrat Richard Pan against independent Kevin Kiley (former Republican who switched affiliation and district after Proposition 50 redistricting). The Sacramento-area district carries a D+5 Partisan Voter Index, a modest Democratic registration edge, and ratings from Solid to Likely Democratic across forecasters. Kiley’s independent status means even a competitive showing would not deliver a Republican victory under the market’s party-based resolution. Recent polling shows Pan with a narrow lead, consistent with the district’s structural lean and limited GOP organizational presence following the map changes. A realistic challenge to Democratic control would require an unusually strong Kiley performance driven by incumbency name recognition or unusually high crossover support among no-party-preference voters, though the underlying partisan composition makes such an outcome unlikely.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы