Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock’s strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where he secured 61 percent of the vote and advanced against Democrat Michael Masuda, has reinforced trader expectations for a Republican hold in California’s 5th congressional district. The seat carries an R+10 Partisan Voter Index and receives Solid or Safe Republican ratings from major forecasters, reflecting its consistent partisan lean and McClintock’s established incumbency advantage. Limited Democratic primary competition and the district’s voter composition further support the current 94.5 percent Republican implied probability. A late scandal, serious health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic midterm wave could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability given the structural and historical baseline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$10,164 Объем
$10,164 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
95%
Демократическая партия
5%
$10,164 Объем
$10,164 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$6,676 Объем
95%
Демократическая партия
$3,488 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock’s strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where he secured 61 percent of the vote and advanced against Democrat Michael Masuda, has reinforced trader expectations for a Republican hold in California’s 5th congressional district. The seat carries an R+10 Partisan Voter Index and receives Solid or Safe Republican ratings from major forecasters, reflecting its consistent partisan lean and McClintock’s established incumbency advantage. Limited Democratic primary competition and the district’s voter composition further support the current 94.5 percent Republican implied probability. A late scandal, serious health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic midterm wave could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability given the structural and historical baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Объем
$10,164Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock’s strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where he secured 61 percent of the vote and advanced against Democrat Michael Masuda, has reinforced trader expectations for a Republican hold in California’s 5th congressional district. The seat carries an R+10 Partisan Voter Index and receives Solid or Safe Republican ratings from major forecasters, reflecting its consistent partisan lean and McClintock’s established incumbency advantage. Limited Democratic primary competition and the district’s voter composition further support the current 94.5 percent Republican implied probability. A late scandal, serious health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic midterm wave could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability given the structural and historical baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$10,164Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock’s strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where he secured 61 percent of the vote and advanced against Democrat Michael Masuda, has reinforced trader expectations for a Republican hold in California’s 5th congressional district. The seat carries an R+10 Partisan Voter Index and receives Solid or Safe Republican ratings from major forecasters, reflecting its consistent partisan lean and McClintock’s established incumbency advantage. Limited Democratic primary competition and the district’s voter composition further support the current 94.5 percent Republican implied probability. A late scandal, serious health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic midterm wave could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability given the structural and historical baseline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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