Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal, first elected in 2017 and re-elected with 62.7% in 2024, anchors Democratic strength in California's 24th congressional district. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the June 2 primary and November 3 general election. The district's voter registration and partisan lean favor Democrats, while the Republican challenger faces structural headwinds typical of such seats. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic probability aligns with this established advantage. A late primary upset producing a stronger Republican nominee or an unforeseen national shift could narrow the margin, though no developments in the past month have altered the underlying dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей CA-24
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей CA-24
$17,918 Объем
$17,918 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
94%
Республиканская партия
6%
$17,918 Объем
$17,918 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$10,034 Объем
94%
Республиканская партия
$7,883 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal, first elected in 2017 and re-elected with 62.7% in 2024, anchors Democratic strength in California's 24th congressional district. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the June 2 primary and November 3 general election. The district's voter registration and partisan lean favor Democrats, while the Republican challenger faces structural headwinds typical of such seats. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic probability aligns with this established advantage. A late primary upset producing a stronger Republican nominee or an unforeseen national shift could narrow the margin, though no developments in the past month have altered the underlying dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Объем
$17,918Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal, first elected in 2017 and re-elected with 62.7% in 2024, anchors Democratic strength in California's 24th congressional district. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the June 2 primary and November 3 general election. The district's voter registration and partisan lean favor Democrats, while the Republican challenger faces structural headwinds typical of such seats. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic probability aligns with this established advantage. A late primary upset producing a stronger Republican nominee or an unforeseen national shift could narrow the margin, though no developments in the past month have altered the underlying dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$17,918Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal, first elected in 2017 and re-elected with 62.7% in 2024, anchors Democratic strength in California's 24th congressional district. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the June 2 primary and November 3 general election. The district's voter registration and partisan lean favor Democrats, while the Republican challenger faces structural headwinds typical of such seats. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic probability aligns with this established advantage. A late primary upset producing a stronger Republican nominee or an unforeseen national shift could narrow the margin, though no developments in the past month have altered the underlying dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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