The district’s pronounced Democratic tilt, reinforced by 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50 and a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+13, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November 3 general election. Incumbent Salud Carbajal enters the June 2 top-two primary with minimal opposition from fellow Democrat Sarah Bacon, Republican Bob Smith, and a minor-party candidate, consistent with his prior 62.7 percent performance and nonpartisan ratings of Solid or Safe Democratic. National midterm dynamics favoring Democrats under the current administration have not altered the seat’s structural profile. Realistic shifts would require an unexpected primary consolidation that produces a stronger Republican nominee or an unprecedented national environment capable of overcoming the district’s registration and historical voting patterns before November.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей CA-24
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей CA-24
$17,918 Объем
$17,918 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
94%
Республиканская партия
6%
$17,918 Объем
$17,918 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$10,034 Объем
94%
Республиканская партия
$7,883 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district’s pronounced Democratic tilt, reinforced by 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50 and a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+13, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November 3 general election. Incumbent Salud Carbajal enters the June 2 top-two primary with minimal opposition from fellow Democrat Sarah Bacon, Republican Bob Smith, and a minor-party candidate, consistent with his prior 62.7 percent performance and nonpartisan ratings of Solid or Safe Democratic. National midterm dynamics favoring Democrats under the current administration have not altered the seat’s structural profile. Realistic shifts would require an unexpected primary consolidation that produces a stronger Republican nominee or an unprecedented national environment capable of overcoming the district’s registration and historical voting patterns before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Объем
$17,918Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district’s pronounced Democratic tilt, reinforced by 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50 and a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+13, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November 3 general election. Incumbent Salud Carbajal enters the June 2 top-two primary with minimal opposition from fellow Democrat Sarah Bacon, Republican Bob Smith, and a minor-party candidate, consistent with his prior 62.7 percent performance and nonpartisan ratings of Solid or Safe Democratic. National midterm dynamics favoring Democrats under the current administration have not altered the seat’s structural profile. Realistic shifts would require an unexpected primary consolidation that produces a stronger Republican nominee or an unprecedented national environment capable of overcoming the district’s registration and historical voting patterns before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$17,918Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district’s pronounced Democratic tilt, reinforced by 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50 and a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+13, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November 3 general election. Incumbent Salud Carbajal enters the June 2 top-two primary with minimal opposition from fellow Democrat Sarah Bacon, Republican Bob Smith, and a minor-party candidate, consistent with his prior 62.7 percent performance and nonpartisan ratings of Solid or Safe Democratic. National midterm dynamics favoring Democrats under the current administration have not altered the seat’s structural profile. Realistic shifts would require an unexpected primary consolidation that produces a stronger Republican nominee or an unprecedented national environment capable of overcoming the district’s registration and historical voting patterns before November.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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