Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo’s dominant performance in the June 2, 2026, California primary has reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold in CA-16. The district’s strong Democratic voter registration edge and historical election margins create structural advantages for the party’s nominee heading into the November general election. Analyst ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting consistent partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing in turnout or external shocks such as a major scandal or national political realignment, scenarios traders currently assign low probability given the district’s established voting patterns and the absence of competitive polling shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-16 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-16 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$76,668 Объем
$76,668 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
93%
Республиканская партия
7%
$76,668 Объем
$76,668 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$49,124 Объем
93%
Республиканская партия
$27,544 Объем
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo’s dominant performance in the June 2, 2026, California primary has reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold in CA-16. The district’s strong Democratic voter registration edge and historical election margins create structural advantages for the party’s nominee heading into the November general election. Analyst ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting consistent partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing in turnout or external shocks such as a major scandal or national political realignment, scenarios traders currently assign low probability given the district’s established voting patterns and the absence of competitive polling shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Объем
$76,668Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo’s dominant performance in the June 2, 2026, California primary has reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold in CA-16. The district’s strong Democratic voter registration edge and historical election margins create structural advantages for the party’s nominee heading into the November general election. Analyst ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting consistent partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing in turnout or external shocks such as a major scandal or national political realignment, scenarios traders currently assign low probability given the district’s established voting patterns and the absence of competitive polling shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$76,668Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo’s dominant performance in the June 2, 2026, California primary has reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold in CA-16. The district’s strong Democratic voter registration edge and historical election margins create structural advantages for the party’s nominee heading into the November general election. Analyst ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting consistent partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing in turnout or external shocks such as a major scandal or national political realignment, scenarios traders currently assign low probability given the district’s established voting patterns and the absence of competitive polling shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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