Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin’s decisive primary victory on June 2, advancing alongside Republican Charles Hoelter to the November general election, reinforces trader consensus on a Democratic hold in California’s 15th congressional district. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat solid or safe Democratic due to its Bay Area location, strong Democratic voter registration edge, and consistent historical margins in similar coastal districts. This positioning aligns with the market’s 95.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party outcome. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national political shift within the next five months remain the primary factors that could realistically alter the trajectory before Election Day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-15 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-15 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$116,421 Объем
$116,421 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
96%
Республиканская партия
4%
$116,421 Объем
$116,421 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$92,679 Объем
96%
Республиканская партия
$23,742 Объем
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin’s decisive primary victory on June 2, advancing alongside Republican Charles Hoelter to the November general election, reinforces trader consensus on a Democratic hold in California’s 15th congressional district. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat solid or safe Democratic due to its Bay Area location, strong Democratic voter registration edge, and consistent historical margins in similar coastal districts. This positioning aligns with the market’s 95.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party outcome. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national political shift within the next five months remain the primary factors that could realistically alter the trajectory before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Объем
$116,421Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin’s decisive primary victory on June 2, advancing alongside Republican Charles Hoelter to the November general election, reinforces trader consensus on a Democratic hold in California’s 15th congressional district. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat solid or safe Democratic due to its Bay Area location, strong Democratic voter registration edge, and consistent historical margins in similar coastal districts. This positioning aligns with the market’s 95.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party outcome. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national political shift within the next five months remain the primary factors that could realistically alter the trajectory before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$116,421Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin’s decisive primary victory on June 2, advancing alongside Republican Charles Hoelter to the November general election, reinforces trader consensus on a Democratic hold in California’s 15th congressional district. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat solid or safe Democratic due to its Bay Area location, strong Democratic voter registration edge, and consistent historical margins in similar coastal districts. This positioning aligns with the market’s 95.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party outcome. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national political shift within the next five months remain the primary factors that could realistically alter the trajectory before Election Day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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