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icon for CA-23 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
Выборы·Выборы 4 ноября

CA-23 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей

icon for CA-23 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
Выборы·Выборы 4 ноября

CA-23 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей

Polymarket

$60,553 Объем

Polymarket

$60,553 Объем

Республиканская партия

$28,392 Объем

93%

Демократическая партия

$32,161 Объем

6%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte secured the top spot in California's June 2026 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote, advancing against Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge to face her in the November general election. The district's consistent Republican tilt, reflected in Obernolte's 60 percent margin in 2024 and Donald Trump's double-digit edge there, underpins trader pricing near 93 percent for the Republican nominee. Obernolte's substantial fundraising lead and the absence of competitive primary threats have reinforced this positioning, with forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Republican. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or sharp national Democratic surge could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability given the structural fundamentals and two-month timeline to Election Day.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$60,553
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte secured the top spot in California's June 2026 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote, advancing against Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge to face her in the November general election. The district's consistent Republican tilt, reflected in Obernolte's 60 percent margin in 2024 and Donald Trump's double-digit edge there, underpins trader pricing near 93 percent for the Republican nominee. Obernolte's substantial fundraising lead and the absence of competitive primary threats have reinforced this positioning, with forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Republican. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or sharp national Democratic surge could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability given the structural fundamentals and two-month timeline to Election Day.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$60,553
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Связанные

icon for Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу TX-23?

Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу TX-23?

70%
Да
icon for Победит ли Демократическая партия на выборах в Палату представителей по округу CA-07?

Победит ли Демократическая партия на выборах в Палату представителей по округу CA-07?

96%
Да
icon for Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу CA-27?

Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу CA-27?

95%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«CA-23 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Республиканская партия» с 93%, за ним следует «Демократическая партия» с 6%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 93¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 93%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «CA-23 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $60.6K с момента запуска рынка Jan 28, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «CA-23 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей», просмотри 2 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «CA-23 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» — «Республиканская партия» с 93%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 93%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Демократическая партия» с 6%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «CA-23 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.