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Выборы·Выборы 4 ноября

CA-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей

icon for CA-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
Выборы·Выборы 4 ноября

CA-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей

НОВОЕ
Polymarket
НОВОЕ

Демократическая партия

$2,795 Объем

93%

Республиканская партия

$1,277 Объем

7%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jared Huffman advanced comfortably through California's June 2 primary for the 2026 House race in the 2nd district, capturing over half the vote while Republican candidates split the remainder. The district's strong Democratic lean and consistent ratings as Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters underpin the 92.5% implied probability for a Democratic winner in November. Huffman’s long tenure, fundraising edge, and focus on environmental and natural resources issues align with voter preferences in the Northern California district. A Republican victory would require either a major scandal affecting the incumbent, a significant national political realignment, or an unforeseen candidate surge before the general election.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$4,072
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jared Huffman advanced comfortably through California's June 2 primary for the 2026 House race in the 2nd district, capturing over half the vote while Republican candidates split the remainder. The district's strong Democratic lean and consistent ratings as Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters underpin the 92.5% implied probability for a Democratic winner in November. Huffman’s long tenure, fundraising edge, and focus on environmental and natural resources issues align with voter preferences in the Northern California district. A Republican victory would require either a major scandal affecting the incumbent, a significant national political realignment, or an unforeseen candidate surge before the general election.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$4,072
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«CA-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Демократическая партия» с 93%, за ним следует «Республиканская партия» с 7%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 93¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 93%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«CA-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Jan 28, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «CA-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей», просмотри 2 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «CA-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» — «Демократическая партия» с 93%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 93%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Республиканская партия» с 7%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «CA-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.