Skip to main content

Чтобы торговать в США, перейдите на polymarket.us

icon for CA-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
Политика·Выборы 4 ноября

CA-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей

icon for CA-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
Политика·Выборы 4 ноября

CA-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей

Polymarket

$35,039 Объем

Polymarket

$35,039 Объем

Майк Макгуайр (Д)

$26,312 Объем

97%

Джеймс Галлахер (Р)

$8,727 Объем

3%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 1st congressional district, redrawn under Proposition 50, added Democratic-leaning areas including parts of Sonoma County while removing some conservative strongholds, shifting the seat toward a Democratic advantage in the November general election. Mike McGuire, the former state Senate president pro tempore, consolidated Democratic support after advancing from the June primary alongside incumbent Republican James Gallagher, who won a separate special election on the prior map. Traders reflect this structural change and McGuire's fundraising and organizational edge in their heavy consensus on his victory. Gallagher could narrow the gap through strong rural turnout or national Republican momentum, though late developments like candidate health issues or major scandals would be required to meaningfully alter the current positioning ahead of the November 3 contest.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$35,039
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 1st congressional district, redrawn under Proposition 50, added Democratic-leaning areas including parts of Sonoma County while removing some conservative strongholds, shifting the seat toward a Democratic advantage in the November general election. Mike McGuire, the former state Senate president pro tempore, consolidated Democratic support after advancing from the June primary alongside incumbent Republican James Gallagher, who won a separate special election on the prior map. Traders reflect this structural change and McGuire's fundraising and organizational edge in their heavy consensus on his victory. Gallagher could narrow the gap through strong rural turnout or national Republican momentum, though late developments like candidate health issues or major scandals would be required to meaningfully alter the current positioning ahead of the November 3 contest.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$35,039
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x2F5e3684c...

Связанные

icon for Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу CO-01?

Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу CO-01?

97%
Да
icon for Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу CA-18?

Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу CA-18?

97%
Да
icon for Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу NC-01?

Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу NC-01?

64%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«CA-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Майк Макгуайр (Д)» с 97%, за ним следует «Джеймс Галлахер (Р)» с 3%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 97¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 97%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «CA-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $35K с момента запуска рынка Jan 28, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «CA-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей», просмотри 2 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «CA-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» — «Майк Макгуайр (Д)» с 97%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 97%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Джеймс Галлахер (Р)» с 3%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «CA-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.