Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race between 18°C or below (50%) and 19°C (43%) for Beijing's highest temperature on April 16, driven by April 13's verified 18°C peak at Beijing Capital International Airport amid cloudy conditions, signaling persistent spring coolness from northerly cold fronts. China Meteorological Administration forecasts indicate a 21°C high with light rain and southwest light breezes, but model ensembles like those on timeanddate.com project overcast skies and 52% thunderstorm risk, potentially capping daytime heating near 19°C via increased cloud albedo and evaporative cooling. Differentiating factors include precipitation onset timing—early showers favor sub-19°C, while delayed clearing permits 20°C—and April 15 observations, with CMA updates expected to sharpen guidance amid Beijing's variable April climatology averaging 21°C highs.