Recent numerical weather prediction models point to a highest temperature of 12–14 °C in Buenos Aires on July 1, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting toward those outcomes. Key variables include the strength and position of a surface high-pressure system over the South Atlantic, which favors southerly flow of cooler maritime air, combined with limited insolation typical of mid-winter and variable low-level cloud cover that can suppress daytime maxima by 1–2 °C. Model spread remains notable because small shifts in the timing of any frontal passage or changes in boundary-layer mixing can alter the daily peak by several degrees. Traders appear to be pricing in this forecast uncertainty rather than climatological averages near 15 °C.