Latest numerical weather prediction runs from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global ensembles point to a daily maximum in Busan on July 16 centered in the low-to-mid 30s °C, driven by strong solar heating under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and only modest sea-breeze moderation from the East Sea. Typical July climatology yields afternoon highs near 29 °C, yet persistent regional heatwave conditions and elevated 850 hPa temperatures are supporting upward departures of 3–5 °C. Key variables separating 33 °C from 34–35 °C outcomes include exact timing and coverage of any residual monsoon moisture, boundary-layer wind speed, and model spread in surface sensible-heat flux. Updated short-range guidance and ensemble plumes expected over the next 48 hours will narrow the range ahead of market resolution.