Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors an 18°C high temperature in Cape Town on May 5, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) official forecast of a maximum 18°C amid an intense cut-off low pressure system ushering cold air, cloudy skies, and isolated showers over the Western Cape. This synoptic feature has suppressed daytime heating through persistent cloud cover and southerly winds, with model ensembles from SAWS aligning closely on this outcome, consistent with intraday METAR observations so far. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected afternoon clearing for enhanced solar insolation or localized warmer pockets near Cape Town International Airport, the market's resolution station, though current atmospheric conditions make 19°C or higher unlikely absent rapid forecast revisions. SAWS updates expected later today could refine this further.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Cape Town on May 5?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on May 5?
18°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$43,518 Объем
$43,518 Объем
5 мая 2026 г.
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$43,518 Объем
$43,518 Объем
5 мая 2026 г.
9°C or below
$1,798 Объем
No
10°C
$1,159 Объем
No
11°C
$649 Объем
No
12°C
$754 Объем
No
13°C
$603 Объем
No
14°C
$1,901 Объем
No
15°C
$1,946 Объем
No
16°C
$3,156 Объем
No
17°C
$4,101 Объем
No
18°C
$13,253 Объем
Yes
19°C or higher
$14,198 Объем
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors an 18°C high temperature in Cape Town on May 5, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) official forecast of a maximum 18°C amid an intense cut-off low pressure system ushering cold air, cloudy skies, and isolated showers over the Western Cape. This synoptic feature has suppressed daytime heating through persistent cloud cover and southerly winds, with model ensembles from SAWS aligning closely on this outcome, consistent with intraday METAR observations so far. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected afternoon clearing for enhanced solar insolation or localized warmer pockets near Cape Town International Airport, the market's resolution station, though current atmospheric conditions make 19°C or higher unlikely absent rapid forecast revisions. SAWS updates expected later today could refine this further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Объем
$43,518Дата окончания
5 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors an 18°C high temperature in Cape Town on May 5, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) official forecast of a maximum 18°C amid an intense cut-off low pressure system ushering cold air, cloudy skies, and isolated showers over the Western Cape. This synoptic feature has suppressed daytime heating through persistent cloud cover and southerly winds, with model ensembles from SAWS aligning closely on this outcome, consistent with intraday METAR observations so far. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected afternoon clearing for enhanced solar insolation or localized warmer pockets near Cape Town International Airport, the market's resolution station, though current atmospheric conditions make 19°C or higher unlikely absent rapid forecast revisions. SAWS updates expected later today could refine this further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$43,518Дата окончания
5 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors an 18°C high temperature in Cape Town on May 5, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) official forecast of a maximum 18°C amid an intense cut-off low pressure system ushering cold air, cloudy skies, and isolated showers over the Western Cape. This synoptic feature has suppressed daytime heating through persistent cloud cover and southerly winds, with model ensembles from SAWS aligning closely on this outcome, consistent with intraday METAR observations so far. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected afternoon clearing for enhanced solar insolation or localized warmer pockets near Cape Town International Airport, the market's resolution station, though current atmospheric conditions make 19°C or higher unlikely absent rapid forecast revisions. SAWS updates expected later today could refine this further.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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