Current short-range forecasts from numerical weather models place Madrid's July 9 maximum near 38–39 °C, driven by a strong subtropical ridge promoting clear skies, strong insolation, and light winds that limit mixing. Historical July averages hover around 32–34 °C, but recent days have already reached 37–39 °C amid the same synoptic pattern, pushing the distribution of possible peaks toward the upper end of climatology. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of peak heating accounts for the tight contest between 38 °C and 39 °C outcomes, while probabilities drop sharply above 40 °C absent an unexpected intensification of the ridge. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and local AEMET guidance will refine these thresholds as the date approaches.