Current AEMET and ensemble model guidance indicate a post-heatwave cooling trend, with Madrid's maximum temperature on June 26 expected near 32–33 °C under weakening southerly flow and increasing Atlantic influence. Official AEMET outlooks list a 32 °C high, while global models such as ECMWF and GFS cluster in the low- to mid-30s °C range, reflecting typical diurnal peaks measured at Retiro or Barajas stations. Recent observations show a sharp drop from the 38.3 °C peak on June 22, tightening the distribution around these values and explaining why 32 °C and 33 °C together command over 75 % of market-implied probability. Resolution hinges on the single official daily maximum reported by AEMET, with limited upside risk from residual warm advection before frontal passage.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on June 26?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 26?
33°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$94,140 Объем
$94,140 Объем
26 июн. 2026 г.
29°C or below
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
Yes
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C or higher
No
33°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$94,140 Объем
$94,140 Объем
26 июн. 2026 г.
29°C or below
$1,739 Объем
No
30°C
$4,362 Объем
No
31°C
$7,130 Объем
No
32°C
$13,301 Объем
No
33°C
$31,726 Объем
Yes
34°C
$13,466 Объем
No
35°C
$7,574 Объем
No
36°C
$5,466 Объем
No
37°C
$2,922 Объем
No
38°C
$2,661 Объем
No
39°C or higher
$3,795 Объем
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current AEMET and ensemble model guidance indicate a post-heatwave cooling trend, with Madrid's maximum temperature on June 26 expected near 32–33 °C under weakening southerly flow and increasing Atlantic influence. Official AEMET outlooks list a 32 °C high, while global models such as ECMWF and GFS cluster in the low- to mid-30s °C range, reflecting typical diurnal peaks measured at Retiro or Barajas stations. Recent observations show a sharp drop from the 38.3 °C peak on June 22, tightening the distribution around these values and explaining why 32 °C and 33 °C together command over 75 % of market-implied probability. Resolution hinges on the single official daily maximum reported by AEMET, with limited upside risk from residual warm advection before frontal passage.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Объем
$94,140Дата окончания
26 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current AEMET and ensemble model guidance indicate a post-heatwave cooling trend, with Madrid's maximum temperature on June 26 expected near 32–33 °C under weakening southerly flow and increasing Atlantic influence. Official AEMET outlooks list a 32 °C high, while global models such as ECMWF and GFS cluster in the low- to mid-30s °C range, reflecting typical diurnal peaks measured at Retiro or Barajas stations. Recent observations show a sharp drop from the 38.3 °C peak on June 22, tightening the distribution around these values and explaining why 32 °C and 33 °C together command over 75 % of market-implied probability. Resolution hinges on the single official daily maximum reported by AEMET, with limited upside risk from residual warm advection before frontal passage.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$94,140Дата окончания
26 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Current AEMET and ensemble model guidance indicate a post-heatwave cooling trend, with Madrid's maximum temperature on June 26 expected near 32–33 °C under weakening southerly flow and increasing Atlantic influence. Official AEMET outlooks list a 32 °C high, while global models such as ECMWF and GFS cluster in the low- to mid-30s °C range, reflecting typical diurnal peaks measured at Retiro or Barajas stations. Recent observations show a sharp drop from the 38.3 °C peak on June 22, tightening the distribution around these values and explaining why 32 °C and 33 °C together command over 75 % of market-implied probability. Resolution hinges on the single official daily maximum reported by AEMET, with limited upside risk from residual warm advection before frontal passage.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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