Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Manila's highest temperature reaching exactly 36°C on May 2, 2026, driven by official PAGASA observations at the resolution source—Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) in Pasay City—which recorded a maximum of 36.2°C around mid-afternoon under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. This aligns with the agency's regional forecast range of 25–36°C for Metro Manila amid ongoing dry season conditions influenced by weak easterlies and lingering El Niño effects boosting above-average heat. Intraday data from nearby stations like Science Garden in Quezon City topped at 35.3°C, reinforcing the NAIA peak without exceeding it. With the day concluded and no revisions expected, scenarios challenging this—like measurement recalibrations or overlooked late-day spikes—are highly improbable given PAGASA's verified methodology.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Manila on May 2?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 2?
36°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$41,435 Объем
$41,435 Объем
2 мая 2026 г.
30°C or below
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
Yes
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C or higher
No
36°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$41,435 Объем
$41,435 Объем
2 мая 2026 г.
30°C or below
$4,720 Объем
No
31°C
$2,783 Объем
No
32°C
$2,867 Объем
No
33°C
$5,474 Объем
No
34°C
$4,839 Объем
No
35°C
$4,936 Объем
No
36°C
$3,727 Объем
Yes
37°C
$3,790 Объем
No
38°C
$2,577 Объем
No
39°C
$1,909 Объем
No
40°C or higher
$3,813 Объем
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Manila's highest temperature reaching exactly 36°C on May 2, 2026, driven by official PAGASA observations at the resolution source—Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) in Pasay City—which recorded a maximum of 36.2°C around mid-afternoon under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. This aligns with the agency's regional forecast range of 25–36°C for Metro Manila amid ongoing dry season conditions influenced by weak easterlies and lingering El Niño effects boosting above-average heat. Intraday data from nearby stations like Science Garden in Quezon City topped at 35.3°C, reinforcing the NAIA peak without exceeding it. With the day concluded and no revisions expected, scenarios challenging this—like measurement recalibrations or overlooked late-day spikes—are highly improbable given PAGASA's verified methodology.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 30, 2026, 12:53 AM ET
Объем
$41,435Дата окончания
2 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 12:53 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Manila's highest temperature reaching exactly 36°C on May 2, 2026, driven by official PAGASA observations at the resolution source—Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) in Pasay City—which recorded a maximum of 36.2°C around mid-afternoon under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. This aligns with the agency's regional forecast range of 25–36°C for Metro Manila amid ongoing dry season conditions influenced by weak easterlies and lingering El Niño effects boosting above-average heat. Intraday data from nearby stations like Science Garden in Quezon City topped at 35.3°C, reinforcing the NAIA peak without exceeding it. With the day concluded and no revisions expected, scenarios challenging this—like measurement recalibrations or overlooked late-day spikes—are highly improbable given PAGASA's verified methodology.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$41,435Дата окончания
2 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 12:53 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Manila's highest temperature reaching exactly 36°C on May 2, 2026, driven by official PAGASA observations at the resolution source—Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) in Pasay City—which recorded a maximum of 36.2°C around mid-afternoon under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. This aligns with the agency's regional forecast range of 25–36°C for Metro Manila amid ongoing dry season conditions influenced by weak easterlies and lingering El Niño effects boosting above-average heat. Intraday data from nearby stations like Science Garden in Quezon City topped at 35.3°C, reinforcing the NAIA peak without exceeding it. With the day concluded and no revisions expected, scenarios challenging this—like measurement recalibrations or overlooked late-day spikes—are highly improbable given PAGASA's verified methodology.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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