Mexico City's July climate features a peak rainy season driven by the North American monsoon, producing frequent afternoon convective showers and cloud cover that typically cap daily highs near the 23°C seasonal average. Recent forecasts indicate highs for July 6 clustered between 22°C and 25°C, with trader-implied probabilities tightly grouped because small differences in rainfall timing, cloud thickness, or insolation can easily shift the maximum by 1–2°C. Official monitoring from Mexico's meteorological service and historical analogs confirm this narrow range as the most common outcome, while lower odds for 26°C+ reflect the low likelihood of clear, dry conditions suppressing convection on this date.