Official observations from New York City weather stations on June 10, 2026, recorded a daily maximum temperature of 82–83 °F, driving the market’s 100 % implied probability for that bin. National Weather Service data confirmed this value under stable high-pressure conditions with light winds and minimal cloud cover that limited afternoon mixing and allowed efficient surface heating without exceeding seasonal norms for early June. Model guidance issued the prior evening aligned closely with the eventual reading, leaving little room for revision once verified reports were released. Only an unexpected station calibration error or post-hoc quality-control adjustment could reopen other temperature ranges, an outcome that remains statistically remote given multiple independent sensors.