Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 70-71°F as the highest temperature recorded at New York City's Central Park station (KNYC) on May 4, 2026, with 100% implied probability reflecting the official National Weather Service observations confirming this measurement amid mostly sunny skies and light winds under a persistent high-pressure ridge. NOAA forecast models, including the latest GFS and NAM runs released 24-48 hours prior, consistently projected daytime highs in the 68-72°F range, aligning with climatological May norms (average high ~70°F) and cool mid-level air masses suppressing warmer advection. This positioning is bolstered by hourly METAR reports peaking near 71°F in early afternoon. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data revisions from NOAA's quality control—such as sensor recalibrations—or disputes over the official resolution source, though historical precedents show such adjustments affect less than 1% of daily records. No further updates expected as final climate summary publishes soon.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in NYC on May 4?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 4?
70-71°F 100.0%
61°F or below <1%
62-63°F <1%
64-65°F <1%
$239,396 Объем
$239,396 Объем
4 мая 2026 г.
61°F or below
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
Yes
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80°F or higher
No
70-71°F 100.0%
61°F or below <1%
62-63°F <1%
64-65°F <1%
$239,396 Объем
$239,396 Объем
4 мая 2026 г.
61°F or below
$7,409 Объем
No
62-63°F
$1,280 Объем
No
64-65°F
$11,251 Объем
No
66-67°F
$9,720 Объем
No
68-69°F
$9,169 Объем
No
70-71°F
$54,076 Объем
Yes
72-73°F
$93,221 Объем
No
74-75°F
$18,288 Объем
No
76-77°F
$16,815 Объем
No
78-79°F
$6,087 Объем
No
80°F or higher
$12,081 Объем
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 70-71°F as the highest temperature recorded at New York City's Central Park station (KNYC) on May 4, 2026, with 100% implied probability reflecting the official National Weather Service observations confirming this measurement amid mostly sunny skies and light winds under a persistent high-pressure ridge. NOAA forecast models, including the latest GFS and NAM runs released 24-48 hours prior, consistently projected daytime highs in the 68-72°F range, aligning with climatological May norms (average high ~70°F) and cool mid-level air masses suppressing warmer advection. This positioning is bolstered by hourly METAR reports peaking near 71°F in early afternoon. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data revisions from NOAA's quality control—such as sensor recalibrations—or disputes over the official resolution source, though historical precedents show such adjustments affect less than 1% of daily records. No further updates expected as final climate summary publishes soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Объем
$239,396Дата окончания
4 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 70-71°F as the highest temperature recorded at New York City's Central Park station (KNYC) on May 4, 2026, with 100% implied probability reflecting the official National Weather Service observations confirming this measurement amid mostly sunny skies and light winds under a persistent high-pressure ridge. NOAA forecast models, including the latest GFS and NAM runs released 24-48 hours prior, consistently projected daytime highs in the 68-72°F range, aligning with climatological May norms (average high ~70°F) and cool mid-level air masses suppressing warmer advection. This positioning is bolstered by hourly METAR reports peaking near 71°F in early afternoon. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data revisions from NOAA's quality control—such as sensor recalibrations—or disputes over the official resolution source, though historical precedents show such adjustments affect less than 1% of daily records. No further updates expected as final climate summary publishes soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$239,396Дата окончания
4 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 70-71°F as the highest temperature recorded at New York City's Central Park station (KNYC) on May 4, 2026, with 100% implied probability reflecting the official National Weather Service observations confirming this measurement amid mostly sunny skies and light winds under a persistent high-pressure ridge. NOAA forecast models, including the latest GFS and NAM runs released 24-48 hours prior, consistently projected daytime highs in the 68-72°F range, aligning with climatological May norms (average high ~70°F) and cool mid-level air masses suppressing warmer advection. This positioning is bolstered by hourly METAR reports peaking near 71°F in early afternoon. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data revisions from NOAA's quality control—such as sensor recalibrations—or disputes over the official resolution source, though historical precedents show such adjustments affect less than 1% of daily records. No further updates expected as final climate summary publishes soon.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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