Official Korea Meteorological Administration short-range guidance points to a maximum near 32–33°C for Seoul-Incheon on August 18 under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and minimal precipitation, yet the tightly clustered market odds around 29–31°C reflect residual uncertainty in afternoon convective development and coastal moderation. Late-summer monsoon patterns and urban heat-island effects typically amplify daytime highs by 1–2°C relative to surrounding rural stations, while any increase in low-level moisture or earlier cloud cover could cap temperatures at the lower end of the forecast envelope. Updated model runs and the next KMA briefing will likely drive further convergence or divergence among the leading outcomes.